A Steady Quarter on the Surface, Two Structural Moves Underneath
Q1 2023 continues the operating recovery this dataset traced through FY2022's post: revenue grew 2.5% YoY to Rp36,090 billion and net income attributable to owners grew 5.0% to Rp6,424 billion, with Telkomsel's GoTo stake actually working in Telkom's favor this quarter - a +Rp430 billion unrealized gain, reversing Q1 2022's -Rp893 billion mark-to-market loss (see that post) and continuing the swing pattern this dataset has tracked since GoTo listed in April 2022.
But two structural threads matter more than the headline numbers. First, the Enterprise segment - which closed FY2022 with its first full-year profit in this dataset's history (Rp831 billion, see FY2022's post) - posted a Rp140 billion loss this quarter, a step back from the three consecutive profitable quarters that built that turnaround. Second, a subsequent-events footnote discloses that on April 6, 2023 - after this quarter closed but before the financial statements were issued - Telkom signed a Conditional Spin-Off Agreement to transfer its entire IndiHome fixed-broadband business, valued at Rp58,250 billion, into Telkomsel, in exchange for new Telkomsel shares that dilute SingTel's stake from roughly 35% to as low as 29.6% (see Beyond the Usual). Telkom's own materials frame this as repositioning the parent company toward B2B while Telkomsel absorbs all of B2C telecom, including the Consumer/IndiHome segment this dataset has tracked separately since 2020.
The Prescription
Telkom should explain, in its next filing, why Enterprise reversed from FY2022's completed turnaround back into a loss after only one quarter - the segment footnote has never once disclosed what drives Enterprise's results in either direction across the nine quarters this dataset has now covered, and a reversal this soon after finally reaching profitability deserves more than silence. Separately, given the scale of the IndiHome-to-Telkomsel transfer disclosed as a subsequent event, Telkom should publish a clear roadmap for how Consumer segment reporting will look once the transfer closes (targeted no later than July 1, 2023 per the footnote) - a reader following this dataset's Consumer (IndiHome) segment tracking needs to know whether that line disappears from Telkom's own consolidated segment table entirely once IndiHome sits inside Telkomsel instead.
Key Financial Metrics
Q1 2023 (three months ended Mar 31, 2023) vs Q1 2022, consolidated
FX: approximately Rp14,970 = US$1 (Mar 31, 2023 market rate), used only to convert the USD columns below.
| Metric | Q1 2023 (Rp) | Q1 2023 (US$) | Q1 2022 (Rp) | YoY (Rp) | YoY (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp36,090B | ~$2,410.8M | Rp35,208B | ✅ +2.5% | ✅ +2.5% |
| Adjusted EBITDA» | ~Rp18,983B | ~$1,268.1M | Rp18,587B | ✅ +2.1% | ✅ +2.1% |
| Operating Income» | Rp11,431B | ~$763.7M | Rp10,611B | ✅ +7.7% | ✅ +7.7% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp6,424B | ~$429.1M | Rp6,118B | ✅ +5.0% | ✅ +5.0% |
| Free Cash Flow» (OCF - capex) | Rp3,846B | ~$257.0M | Rp10,148B | 🔴 -62.1% | 🔴 -62.1% |
| Total Cash | Rp29,935B | ~$2,000.0M | Rp41,629B | 🔴 -28.1% | 🔴 -28.1% |
Free cash flow fell sharply YoY (-62.1%) as operating cash flow declined to Rp12,377 billion from Rp18,617 billion, driven by a jump in cash payments for expenses (Rp15,097 billion vs Rp10,022 billion) that outpaced the revenue growth in the same period, while capex held roughly flat (Rp8,531 billion vs Rp8,469 billion including the Rp1,648 billion tower acquisition by a subsidiary this quarter). Total cash is also down YoY largely because Q1 2022's Rp41,629 billion comparative sat right after the FY2021 dividend timing described in that post - a base-effect comparison, not new weakness this quarter.
Revenue and profit both grew in line with FY2022's recovery, and the EBITDA/operating-profit lines actually benefited from a favorable GoTo mark this quarter rather than being hurt by it. The real story is underneath: Enterprise lost money again after finally turning profitable, and a subsequent event shows the entire IndiHome business about to move into Telkomsel. See Target Valuation Range for what the market is pricing in.
Key Operational Metrics
- IndiHome subscribers: 9.4 million total, with IndiHome revenue growing 5.0% YoY to Rp7.2 trillion including add-ons revenue
- Telkomsel digital contribution: 84.4% of Telkomsel's total revenue came from digital services, up from 79.7% a year earlier - continuing the legacy-to-digital mix shift this dataset has tracked since 2020
- Capital expenditure: Rp7,418 billion this quarter (consolidated, including the tower acquisition), roughly flat with Rp5,735 billion a year earlier once the one-off Rp1,648 billion tower purchase is set aside
Segment Comparison
Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022
| Segment | External Revenue Q1 2023 | External Revenue Q1 2022 | YoY | Segment Result Q1 2023 | Margin Q1 2023 | Margin Q1 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile | Rp20,635B | Rp20,390B | ✅ +1.2% | Rp7,207B | ✅ 34.9% | 30.9% |
| Consumer (IndiHome) | Rp6,656B | Rp6,508B | ✅ +2.3% | Rp2,426B | ✅ 36.4% | 30.5% |
| Enterprise | Rp4,507B | Rp4,179B | ✅ +7.8% | 🔴 -Rp140B | 🔴 -3.1% | -0.8% |
| WIB | Rp4,040B | Rp3,883B | ✅ +4.0% | Rp2,281B | ⚠️ 56.5% | 64.7% |
| Others | Rp89B | Rp55B | ➖ +61.8% | -Rp250B | n/m | n/m |
| Total segment | Rp35,927B | Rp35,015B | ✅ +2.6% | Rp11,524B | 32.1% | 30.2% |
Mobile and Consumer both improved margin YoY, continuing FY2022's positive trend for those two segments (see FY2022's post). WIB's margin kept compressing (64.7% to 56.5%), extending the multi-quarter erosion this dataset flagged across 2022. Enterprise is the outlier: revenue grew fastest of the core segments (+7.8%) but margin went negative again after FY2022's full-year 4.3%.
Mobile
Margin improved 4 points YoY (30.9% to 34.9%), the strongest of the core segments this quarter and a continuation of the recovery flagged at FY2022's close, when full-year margin had fallen to 30.6% from 40.9% the year before.
Consumer (IndiHome)
Revenue and margin both grew, consistent with FY2022's full-year trend (see that post). This is the last quarter this dataset will track Consumer as a standalone Telkom segment on the current basis - see Beyond the Usual for the subsequent-event transfer to Telkomsel.
Enterprise
Reversed to a loss one quarter after closing FY2022 with the segment's first full-year profit ever. Revenue growth (+7.8%) was actually the fastest of the core segments, so this isn't a demand problem - the segment footnote gives no cost or provisioning detail to explain the swing, exactly the same disclosure gap flagged across every prior quarter in this dataset's Enterprise coverage.
WIB (Wholesale and International Business)
Margin fell another 8 points YoY (64.7% to 56.5%), extending a decline that has now run across multiple consecutive quarters tracked in this dataset - still Telkom's highest-margin segment, but the gap to the others keeps narrowing.
Beyond the Usual
Telkom Agreed to Transfer the Entire IndiHome Business Into Telkomsel
A subsequent-events footnote discloses that on April 6, 2023 - after this quarter's close but before the financial statements were issued - Telkom signed a Conditional Spin-Off Agreement to transfer its IndiHome fixed-broadband business, valued at Rp58,250 billion, to Telkomsel "by operation of law," targeted no later than July 1, 2023. In exchange, Telkomsel will issue 33,300 new shares to Telkom, and separately SingTel intends to exercise part of its pre-emptive right to subscribe to 1,551 new shares for Rp2,713 billion in cash. Depending on how much of that right SingTel exercises, Telkom's stake in Telkomsel will land between 69.9% and 70.4%, with SingTel's diluting to between 29.6% and 30.1%. This is a genuinely major restructuring - the Consumer segment this dataset has tracked as a standalone Telkom business line since 2020 is set to be absorbed into Telkomsel, and Telkom's own presentation frames the broader intent as repositioning the parent company around B2B while Telkomsel takes over all of B2C telecom.
Mitratel Approved a Buyback Alongside Its Dividend, One Week After Quarter-End
Mitratel (Telkom's tower subsidiary, IPO'd November 2021 per Q3 2021's post) held its shareholder meeting on April 14, 2023 and approved both a Rp1,767 billion dividend (Rp1,250 billion ordinary plus Rp517 billion special) and a share buyback of up to Rp1,500 billion, capped at 7.88% of issued capital. Running a buyback alongside a dividend payout in the same shareholder meeting, at a subsidiary roughly 18 months post-IPO, is a capital-allocation combination worth watching in future Mitratel-related disclosures inside Telkom's own consolidated filings.
GoTo's Mark Turned Positive This Quarter, Reversing a Full Year of Losses
Telkomsel's GoTo stake produced a +Rp430 billion unrealized fair-value gain this quarter, the first positive quarterly mark this dataset has recorded since GoTo's April 2022 listing - a reversal from Q1 2022's -Rp893 billion loss and the string of swings through FY2022 that netted to a -Rp6,438 billion full-year hit (see FY2022's post). One positive quarter doesn't resolve the underlying volatility question raised in that post's Prescription section, but it is the first sign the position can move in Telkom's favor as well.
Target Valuation Range
Bottom line: fairly valued to modestly undervalued - roughly Rp3,300-Rp4,650 fair-value range (bear-to-bull, TTM EV/EBITDA-based) against a Rp4,060 actual close, which sits closer to base/bull as the market shows early confidence in the operating recovery without yet pricing the IndiHome-Telkomsel restructuring's full implications.
Telkom's shares closed Q1 2023 at Rp4,060, up 8.3% from FY2022's Rp3,750 close (see that post). Over the trailing 2 years (March 2021 through March 2023), the stock moved from Rp3,420 to Rp4,060, an 18.7% net gain, though the window included a peak near Rp4,620 (April 2022) and a trough near Rp3,150 (June 2021) - a roughly 47% peak-to-trough swing already covered in this dataset's 2022 posts, not new this quarter, so it's folded into this valuation section rather than given its own heading.
| Market cap → enterprise value | Q1 2023 (period-end) |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp4,060 |
| Shares outstanding | 99,062,216,600 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp402,213 billion (~$26.9 billion) |
| Plus: total debt | Rp42,948 billion |
| Less: cash | Rp29,935 billion |
| Enterprise value | ~Rp415,226 billion |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | FY2022 | Q1 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTM EPS | Rp209.49 | Rp212.61* | ➖ up slightly |
| P/E | ~17.9x | ~19.1x | ⚠️ up |
| Book value per share (owners) | ~Rp1,304.9 | ~Rp1,368.9 | ✅ up |
| P/B | ~2.87x | ~2.97x | ➖ up slightly |
| TTM Adjusted EBITDA | Rp72,836B | ~Rp73,232B* | ➖ up slightly |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~5.3x | ~5.7x | ⚠️ up |
*TTM figures estimated by adding Q1 2023 and subtracting Q1 2022 from the FY2022 base.
All three multiples ticked up modestly as the share price rose faster than trailing earnings - a market pricing in continued confidence rather than reacting to any single number this quarter. Applying the same mature-telecom EV/EBITDA range used throughout this dataset:
| Scenario | Key assumption | Multiple | Implied EV | Implied price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current (Q1 2023 close) | actual market price, for reference | ~5.7x TTM Adjusted EBITDA | ~Rp415,226 billion | Rp4,060 |
| Bear | Enterprise's reversal to a loss and the IndiHome-Telkomsel restructuring's execution risk weigh on sentiment | ~4.7x | ~Rp344,190 billion | ~Rp3,330 |
| Base | Multiple holds near current levels pending clarity on how the IndiHome transfer reshapes consolidated reporting | ~5.7x | ~Rp417,422 billion | ~Rp4,081 |
| Bull | The market credits the operating recovery and treats the Telkomsel consolidation as value-accretive once details firm up | ~6.7x | ~Rp490,653 billion | ~Rp4,651 |
The current close sits almost exactly at base case - a market that has absorbed the operating recovery into the price without yet expressing a strong view on the IndiHome-Telkomsel restructuring, which is still in its earliest, conditional stage as of this quarter's filing.
Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk's unaudited consolidated financial statements as of and for the three-month period ended March 31, 2023, reflecting subsequent events through the report's issuance, plus the Company's 1Q23 corporate presentation.