The Deposit Shortfall This Blog Tracked All Year Is Over - Almost
The Q1 2023, H1 2023, and Q3 2023 posts all tracked the same tension: bank-only deposits sitting below their December 2022 starting point every quarter, even as loans kept growing, pushing the bank-only Loan-to-Deposit Ratio» (LDR) from 77.61% at the end of 2022 to 87.64% by September 2023. This is Mandiri's full-year 2023 audited financial statement (period ended December 31, 2023) - and the deposit side of that story finally resolved itself: bank-only deposits closed the year at Rp1,242.15 trillion, up 4.1% from December 2022's Rp1,193.16 trillion, the first year-end reading above the starting line since this blog began tracking it.
The catch is that it didn't happen by deposits growing steadily - it happened in one enormous Q4 push. Bank-only deposits jumped from Rp1,150.73 trillion at the end of Q3 to Rp1,242.15 trillion at year-end, a +7.94% move in three months - the kind of quarter-end inflow (government and corporate year-end placements, "window dressing" deposits that are common across Indonesian banking in December) that shows up reliably at fiscal year-end. But bank-only loans grew even faster on a full-year basis: +16.4% YoY to Rp1,085.79 trillion, against 4.1% deposit growth over the same twelve months - so even with December's deposit surge, the bank-only LDR only eased from September's 87.64% peak to 86.75% at year-end. It's the first sequential decline the ratio has posted all year, but it's still nearly ten points above where 2023 started, not a return to normal.
The other half of the year's story is what's disclosed and what isn't: this filing doesn't include the segment-level NPL breakdown by Wholesale and Retail Banking that the Q3 2023 post used to show Wholesale's bad-loan balance nearly halving while Retail's kept climbing - no results presentation was filed alongside this quarter's audited statement, only the underlying financial statement itself. That leaves the segment-level thread genuinely open going into 2024 (see Beyond the Usual for what the audited statement does disclose instead).
The Prescription
Mandiri closed 2023 with the same core edge the Q3 2023 post already flagged - wholesale scale funded by cheap, sticky deposits - and this quarter's own annual report puts a number on how far that edge now extends: wholesale loans grew 19.2% YoY to Rp727.7 trillion, a full 67% of the bank's total loan book, with an 19.1% share of the national wholesale lending market as of October 2023. That's not a bank hedging its bets across segments; that's a bank that has decided wholesale is the business and is doubling down. The operational move worth making explicit for 2024: treat the December deposit surge as what it actually is - a seasonal, largely government/corporate placement pattern - rather than evidence the underlying deposit-growth problem is solved. A bank that needs one enormous Q4 quarter to pull its full-year deposit growth (4.1%) even remotely close to its full-year loan growth (16.4%) hasn't fixed the gap; it's found a way to paper over it once a year.
What it should stop doing: leaving the reader guessing about segment-level asset quality. The Q3 2023 post could show Wholesale Banking's NPL balance nearly halving while Retail Banking's kept climbing every quarter - genuinely the most interesting finding in that post - specifically because a results presentation happened to include the breakdown that quarter. This quarter's audited statement doesn't repeat it, and no presentation was filed to fill the gap. If Retail's bad-loan balance kept climbing through Q4 the way it did in every prior quarter of 2023, a reader of Mandiri's own official year-end filing currently has no way to know. That's a disclosure choice Mandiri controls, not a regulatory floor - and the one place this backfill can't currently answer whether the Retail asset-quality trend that ran through three straight quarters of 2023 continued or reversed by year-end.
Key Financial Metrics
FY2023 vs FY2022 (P&L, consolidated), and December 31, 2023 vs December 31, 2022 (balance sheet, consolidated)
FX: IDR 15,397.00 = USD 1 (December 31, 2023 close, per the bank's own year-end reference rate disclosure); IDR 15,567.50 = USD 1 (December 31, 2022 close, per the same disclosure, consistent with the FY2022 and H1 2023 posts).
| Metric | FY2023 (IDR) | FY2023 (USD) | FY2022 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest, sharia & premium income, net ("Net Revenue" equivalent) | Rp98,009,620M | ~$6.37B | Rp90,371,052M | ✅ +8.5% |
| Operating Income (profit from operations) | Rp74,641,563M | ~$4.85B | Rp56,168,089M | ✅ +32.9% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp55,060,057M | ~$3.58B | Rp41,170,637M | ✅ +33.7% |
| EPS (basic, full-year) | Rp589.93 | ~$0.038 | Rp441.26 (restated) | ✅ +33.7% |
Operating cash flow for the year was approximately negative Rp69.62 trillion (~-$4.52B; against about Rp5.02 trillion of fixed- and intangible-asset capex) - a smaller full-year cash drain than FY2022's positive Rp100.7 trillion (~$6.47B), consistent with loans growing far faster than deposits across the year even after the Q4 deposit surge (see above). Total cash at year-end is Rp243,801,693M (~$15.83B), down from Rp274,889,544M at the start of the year.
| Balance sheet metric | Dec 31, 2023 (IDR) | Dec 31, 2023 (USD) | Dec 31, 2022 (IDR) | Change since Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp2,174,219,449M | ~$141.21B | Rp1,992,544,687M | ✅ +9.1% |
| Loans (gross, Kredit) | Rp1,359,832,195M | ~$88.32B | Rp1,172,599,882M | ✅ +16.0% |
| Total Deposits (Giro + Tabungan + Deposito, incl. sharia) | Rp1,576,949,619M | ~$102.42B | Rp1,490,844,592M | ✅ +5.8% |
| Total Liabilities | Rp1,913,366,665M | ~$124.27B | Rp1,762,865,901M | ➖ +8.5% |
| Total Equity (attributable to owners) | Rp260,852,784M | ~$16.94B | Rp229,678,786M | ✅ +13.6% |
Total equity attributable to owners grew a strong 13.6% for the year, well ahead of H1's near-flat 0.6% and 9M's 5.9% readings - the full year's profit retention now outweighs the FY2022 dividend payment (Rp24.70 trillion, itself up 46.9% from the Rp16.82 trillion dividend paid in 2022) that dragged on equity growth earlier in the year.
Loan growth accelerating to 16.4% YoY while deposits managed only 4.1% isn't free even after a strong Q4 deposit quarter - it's why the bank-only LDR only pulled back one point from its September peak instead of returning toward where the year started. See The Deposit Shortfall This Blog Tracked All Year Is Over - Almost above.
Key Operational Metrics
Bank-only ratios are from the bank's own filed Statements of Financial Ratios (Dec 2023 vs Dec 2022); consolidated ratios and market-share figures are from the bank's own FY2023 annual report, except where marked "computed" (derived directly from the filed consolidated balance sheet)
- Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) - bank-only: 86.75%, up from 77.61% a year earlier but down from September 2023's 87.64% peak - the first sequential decline the Q1 2023, H1 2023, and Q3 2023 posts have tracked all year. Consolidated: 86.24% (computed: Rp1,359,832,195M loans ÷ Rp1,576,949,619M deposits), down from September's computed 88.23%.
- CASA» ratio - bank-only: 79.40%, up from 78.78% at Q3 and 77.64% at December 31, 2022. Consolidated: 74.30% (computed: Rp1,171,704,580M demand + saving deposits ÷ Rp1,576,949,619M total deposits). Per the bank's own annual report, this CASA strength gives Mandiri an 18.39% national CASA market share as of November 2023.
- NIM» - bank-only: 5.25%, up from 5.16% a year earlier. Consolidated (per the bank's own annual report): 5.48%, described by the bank as "relatively stable" versus H1's 5.46% and 9M's 5.59% readings.
- NPL» ratio - gross: bank-only 1.02% (down sharply from 1.88% a year earlier and from Q3's 1.36%) - continuing the multi-quarter improvement, though see The Prescription above for why the segment-level picture behind that consolidated improvement is unavailable this quarter.
- NPL ratio - net: bank-only 0.29%, up slightly from 0.26% a year earlier - the same small gross/net divergence the H1 2023 and Q3 2023 posts both noted, still narrow.
- NPL Coverage: consolidated 326%, up 41.1 points YoY per the bank's own annual report and continuing to climb past Q3's 299% and FY2022's 268%.
- CAR (capital adequacy)»: bank-only 21.48%, up from 19.46% a year earlier. Consolidated: 21.99%, up from 19.65%.
- ROA - after tax: bank-only 4.03%, up from 3.30% a year earlier.
- ROE - after tax: bank-only 27.31%, up from 22.62% a year earlier.
- Cost-to-Income Ratio» (CIR): bank-only 34.36%, improved from 38.19% a year earlier.
- Operating Expenses to Operating Income (BOPO): bank-only 51.88%, improved sharply from 57.35% a year earlier.
- Cost of Credit (CoC): consolidated 0.85% (annualized, per the bank's own annual report), down 59 basis points YoY and now below both Q3's 0.96% and FY2022's 1.44%.
- Loan at Risk (LaR») ratio: consolidated 8.62%, improved 3.25 points YoY per the bank's own annual report - continuing the multi-quarter decline this blog has tracked (11.9% FY2022 → 10.3% H1 2023 → 9.79% 9M 2023 → 8.62% FY2023).
- Restructured Covid-era loans (bank-only): Rp17.2 trillion against gross bank-only loans of Rp1,085.79 trillion - 1.58% of the bank-only loan book, a sharp drop from Q3's 8.20% and continuing the multi-quarter decline the FY2022 (10.9%), Q1 2023 (10.0%), and Q3 2023 (8.20%) posts all tracked. The absolute balance fell more than half in a year, from Rp35.9 trillion at December 2022.
- Off-balance-sheet commitments and contingencies: approximately Rp369.85 trillion (consolidated, excluding matched FX spot/derivative notional positions), about 17.01% of total consolidated assets, computed the same way as the FY2022 (17.5%), Q1 2023 (18.44%), H1 2023 (18.70%), and Q3 2023 (18.06%) posts - the lowest reading in this series so far.
- Wholesale loan concentration: wholesale loans grew 19.2% YoY to Rp727.7 trillion, per the bank's own annual report now 67% of Mandiri's total loan book, with a 19.1% national wholesale-lending market share as of October 2023 - see The Prescription above.
- Not available in this filing: an internal segment income-statement or NPL breakdown by Wholesale/Retail/Commercial (disclosed for H1 and, differently, for Q3 2023 - see The Prescription above), and no results presentation or earnings call transcript was filed alongside this quarter's audited statement.
Mandiri Shares Rose 21.9% for the Year - Most of the Gain Came Before October
The FY2022, H1 2023, and Q3 2023 posts already covered most of the 2021-2023 recovery rally, including the +15.9% two-month surge from June to September 2023. That surge didn't continue into Q4: shares closed at Rp6,050 on December 29, 2023, the last trading day of the year - up only +0.4% from September's Rp6,025 close, after actually dipping to Rp5,675 in October before recovering to Rp5,850 in November and Rp6,050 in December. For the full year, shares rose +21.9% from the split-adjusted Rp4,962.5 close on December 30, 2022 (no further stock split has occurred since the 1:2 split that took effect April 2023, so December 2023's Rp6,050 is the actual nominal price quoted on the exchange). The two-year window from December 2021 (Rp3,512.5, split-adjusted) to December 2023 is a +72.2% move - a smaller two-year figure than September's +95.9% reading, purely a base-effect artifact of December 2021 already sitting higher than September 2021 did, not a sign the rally itself weakened.
Beyond the Usual
The filed governance-rating disclosure hasn't been updated to reflect this filing's own period
The audited statement's compliance notes state that "the Governance Factor Rating for Bank Mandiri Individually for the period December 2022 and the period June 2023 is 2 (Good)" - citing a rating current only through June 2023, six months before the period this December 2023 filing actually covers. Nothing in this suggests a problem with the rating itself, but it means a reader of this specific filing has no disclosed governance-factor assessment for the second half of 2023, the exact period this statement is reporting on.
The FY2022 dividend paid out in 2023 jumped 46.9% - and it's the reason H1's equity growth looked weak
Mandiri paid Rp24.70 trillion in dividends during 2023 (representing the FY2022 profit distribution), up sharply from the Rp16.82 trillion dividend paid during 2022 (representing FY2021 profit). That single cash outflow is the main reason the H1 2023 post found equity growing only 0.6% at the halfway point of the year even as profit rose 24.9% - the dividend payment landed early in the year and outweighed six months of retained earnings. By year-end, twelve months of profit retention had more than absorbed it, producing the 13.6% full-year equity growth shown in Key Financial Metrics above.
Related-party lending is still only disclosed on the narrow bank-only basis
The H1 2023 post found that "related-party lending," previously treated as a rounding error, is actually 17.53% of the consolidated loan book once the accounting standard's full BUMN-wide related-party definition is used - a definitional gap, not a data error, since Mandiri's controlling shareholder is the state. This year-end filing's legal-lending-limit disclosure again shows only the narrower bank-only figure: total funding to related parties (management, pension funds, and direct corporate affiliates, not the full state-owned-enterprise population) of Rp5.69 trillion, essentially unchanged from Q3's Rp5.66 trillion and still just a fraction of a percent of the bank-only loan book - the annual report doesn't disclose the broader 17.53%-scale figure either, consistent with every quarter since it was first found.
Target Valuation Range
Market cap Rp564.67 trillion (~$36.67B), ~2.2x P/B, ~10.3x P/E. Bottom line: Mandiri enters 2024 slightly cheaper on a trailing basis than it looked at the end of Q3 - a trailing P/E of roughly 10.3x and P/B of roughly 2.2x for a bank running a 27.3% bank-only ROE is a genuine re-rating discount versus Q3's read (11.3x P/E, 2.3x P/B), because full-year earnings growth (33.7%) meaningfully outran the stock's own Q4 price move (+0.4%).
Using FY2023's actual net income of Rp55.06 trillion (no TTM patching needed now that a full year is on record) and the post-split share count of 93,333,333,332:
| Market cap → book value | Q4 2023 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp6,050 |
| Shares outstanding | 93,333,333,332 |
| Market capitalization | Rp564.67 trillion (~$36.67B) |
| Total equity (book value) | Rp260,852,784M |
| Book value per share | Rp2,794.85 |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B | 2.3x | 2.2x | down |
| P/E | 11.3x | 10.3x | down |
P/E: ~10.3x, using FY2023 EPS of Rp589.93, against the Rp6,050 close on December 29, 2023. P/B: ~2.2x, using book value per share of approximately Rp2,794.85 (Rp260,852,784M total equity attributable to owners ÷ 93,333,333,332 shares). Market capitalization: approximately Rp564.67 trillion (~$36.67B). Both multiples remain below BBCA's historical multiples on a similar ROE profile (~18x P/E, ~3.3x P/B in its earliest backfilled quarters - see BCA's Q1 2016 post, directional context rather than a same-period read). This is the first Mandiri post in this backfill with a genuine full trailing year of its own data (FY2022, Q1, H1, Q3, and now FY2023), and the multiples still sit meaningfully below where a bank compounding a 27%+ ROE and improving asset quality across every quarter would trade in a fuller re-rating - a real DCF remains a natural next step once enough of 2024's quarters are on record to build a credible forward growth assumption rather than extrapolating from one year.
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk's FY2023 published consolidated and individual financial statements ("Laporan Keuangan Konsolidasian dan Individual"), for the year ended December 31, 2023 (audited), and Bank Mandiri's FY2023 annual report, both via Bank Mandiri's investor relations page.