The Deposit Outflow the Prior Post Warned About, Right on Schedule
The FY2023 post closed with a warning: the Rp91.4 trillion Q4 2023 deposit surge that finally pushed bank-only deposits above their December 2022 starting point was "a seasonal, largely government/corporate placement pattern - rather than evidence the underlying deposit-growth problem is solved." This is Mandiri's Q1 2024 published consolidated financial statement (unaudited, period ended March 31, 2024), and that warning played out almost exactly as flagged: bank-only deposits fell from Rp1,242.15 trillion at year-end to Rp1,232.52 trillion at the end of Q1, a -0.78% quarterly pullback - the same seasonal reversal that showed up as a much larger outflow in Q1 2023 (deposits fell Rp108 trillion that quarter) and a smaller one in H1 2023's opening months.
What's different this time is the pace of loan growth against a shrinking deposit base. Bank-only loans kept climbing through the outflow, from Rp1,085.79 trillion at year-end to Rp1,113.89 trillion - a +2.59% quarterly increase. The combination pushed the bank's own filed bank-only Loan-to-Deposit Ratio» (LDR) from 86.75% at year-end to 89.66% at the end of Q1 - not just a rebound toward September 2023's prior peak of 87.64%, but past it, to the highest reading this blog has tracked across five quarters of this backfill. Consolidated LDR moved the same direction, from a computed 86.24% at year-end to a computed 88.68% at Q1-end (Rp1,393.93 trillion consolidated loans ÷ Rp1,571.89 trillion consolidated deposits).
The bigger surprise sits in the P&L, not the balance sheet. Consolidated net income attributable to owners came in at Rp12.70 trillion, up just 1.13% from Q1 2023's Rp12.56 trillion - a dramatic deceleration from the 27.4% (9M 2023) and 33.7% (FY2023) growth rates this blog has tracked through the rest of 2023. Net revenue (net interest, sharia, and premium income) grew only 5.35% YoY, versus FY2023's 8.5% full-year pace, and operating income grew just 2.11% YoY versus FY2023's 32.9%. This isn't a one-line footnote - it's the headline of the quarter, and it shows up across every bank-only profitability ratio the filing discloses (see Key Operational Metrics below).
The Prescription
The FY2023 post argued Mandiri should treat its December deposit surge as a seasonal artifact rather than a solved problem, and this quarter is the proof: a bank that needs one enormous Q4 quarter to close its full-year deposit gap, and then gives most of that gain back in Q1, is running a funding base that's structurally out of sync with its loan growth ambitions. The operational move for the rest of 2024: Mandiri's own wholesale-lending strategy - now 67% of the loan book as of the FY2023 post - depends on a low-cost CASA» funding base to make wholesale spreads work at scale. If loan growth keeps outrunning deposit growth every quarter except the one that closes the fiscal year, that CASA advantage erodes exactly when the wholesale strategy needs it most. The prescription is the same one flagged last quarter, now with a live test case: Mandiri needs deposit growth that doesn't depend on a single quarter-end placement wave to look adequate on a full-year basis.
What it should stop doing: letting operating expenses grow faster than operating income while calling it business as usual. Bank-only Operating Expenses to Operating Income (BOPO) jumped from 51.88% at year-end to 58.38% this quarter - a 6.5 point deterioration in three months, and worse than even Q1 2023's already-elevated 54.83%. Some of this is a normal Q1 seasonal pattern (January bonus accruals, annual contract renewals land early in the year across Indonesian banks), but the scale of the jump, layered on top of the LDR pressure above, is the first quarter in this backfill where more than one core metric moved the wrong direction at once. A bank that's used every other quarter of 2023 to show improving efficiency and returns owes a clearer explanation than "seasonality" for a quarter where NIM, ROA, ROE, and BOPO all worsened simultaneously.
Key Financial Metrics
Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023 (P&L, consolidated), and March 31, 2024 vs December 31, 2023 (balance sheet, consolidated)
FX: IDR 15,855.00 = USD 1 (March 31, 2024 close, per the bank's own filed exchange-rate disclosure); IDR 14,994.50 = USD 1 (March 31, 2023 close, per the same disclosure, consistent with the Q1 2023 post's own basis).
| Metric | Q1 2024 (IDR) | Q1 2024 (USD) | Q1 2023 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest, sharia & premium income, net ("Net Revenue" equivalent) | Rp24,728,848M | ~$1.56B | Rp23,473,048M | ⚠️ +5.4% |
| Operating Income (profit from operations) | Rp17,605,258M | ~$1.11B | Rp17,241,119M | ⚠️ +2.1% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp12,702,178M | ~$0.80B | Rp12,560,171M | ⚠️ +1.1% |
| EPS (basic, quarterly) | Rp136.09 | ~$0.0086 | Rp134.57 | ⚠️ +1.1% |
Operating cash flow for the quarter was approximately negative Rp8.73 trillion (~-$0.55B; against about Rp0.81 trillion of fixed- and intangible-asset capex) - a far smaller cash drain than Q1 2023's -Rp90.1 trillion, since this year's deposit outflow (-0.78% bank-only QoQ) was much milder than last year's Rp108 trillion Q1 2023 collapse. Total cash at quarter-end is Rp213,070,357M (~$13.44B), down from Rp243,801,693M at the start of the quarter.
| Balance sheet metric | Mar 31, 2024 (IDR) | Mar 31, 2024 (USD) | Dec 31, 2023 (IDR) | Change since Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp2,163,785,243M | ~$136.47B | Rp2,174,219,449M | ➖ -0.5% |
| Loans (gross, Kredit) | Rp1,393,927,895M | ~$87.92B | Rp1,359,832,195M | ✅ +2.5% |
| Total Deposits (Giro + Tabungan + Deposito, incl. sharia) | Rp1,571,891,093M | ~$99.14B | Rp1,576,949,619M | ⚠️ -0.3% |
| Total Equity (attributable to owners) | Rp240,686,777M | ~$15.18B | Rp260,852,784M | ⚠️ -7.7% |
Equity fell 7.7% in a single quarter - not an earnings problem, but the mechanical effect of the FY2023 dividend payment (see Beyond the Usual below for the exact figure and how it compares to the FY2022 dividend the H1 2023 post flagged for the same reason).
Net income growth cratered from 33.7% (FY2023) to 1.1% (Q1 2024) in the same quarter the bank-only LDR broke past its prior 2023 peak - the deposit-vs-loan tension this blog has tracked since Q1 2023 didn't resolve over the winter, it just took a quarter off. See The Deposit Outflow the Prior Post Warned About, Right on Schedule above.
Key Operational Metrics
Bank-only ratios are from the bank's own filed Statements of Financial Ratios (Mar 2024 vs Mar 2023); consolidated figures are computed directly from the filed consolidated statements, marked "computed"
- Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) - bank-only: 89.66%, up from 84.90% a year earlier and up from December 2023's 86.75% - a new high across this backfill's five quarters, surpassing September 2023's prior peak of 87.64%. Consolidated: 88.68% (computed: Rp1,393,927,895M loans ÷ Rp1,571,891,093M deposits), up from December's computed 86.24%.
- CASA ratio - bank-only: 79.44% (computed: Rp979,184,002M demand + saving deposits ÷ Rp1,232,522,384M total deposits), essentially flat versus December 2023's 79.40%.
- NIM» - bank-only: 4.89%, down from 5.11% a year earlier and down from December 2023's 5.25% - the first sequential NIM decline this blog has tracked in this backfill.
- NPL» ratio - gross: bank-only 1.02%, flat versus December 2023 and down sharply from 1.70% a year earlier - the multi-quarter improvement held steady rather than continuing to fall.
- NPL ratio - net: bank-only 0.33%, up slightly from December 2023's 0.29% and up from 0.26% a year earlier.
- CAR (capital adequacy)»: bank-only 19.01%, down from 19.52% a year earlier - the first YoY CAR decline this blog has tracked, though still comfortably above regulatory minimums.
- ROA - after tax: bank-only 3.31%, down from 3.59% a year earlier and down from December 2023's 4.03%.
- ROE - after tax: bank-only 21.52%, down from 24.56% a year earlier and down from December 2023's 27.31%.
- Cost-to-Income Ratio» (CIR): bank-only 34.31%, essentially flat versus December 2023's 34.36% but up from 33.46% a year earlier.
- Operating Expenses to Operating Income (BOPO): bank-only 58.38%, up sharply from 54.83% a year earlier and from December 2023's 51.88% - see The Prescription above.
- Not available in this filing: an internal segment income-statement or NPL breakdown by Wholesale/Retail/Commercial banking - the FY2023 post already flagged this gap opening up in Q4 2023, and it continues here; no results presentation or earnings call transcript was filed alongside this quarter's published statement either, so the segment-level thread first opened in H1 2023 and Q3 2023 remains unresolved three quarters running.
Mandiri Shares Jumped 19.8% in a Single Quarter
The FY2023 post closed with shares essentially flat since September at Rp6,050, a quiet finish to 2023's +21.9% full-year rally. Q1 2024 broke that quiet: shares closed at Rp7,250 on March 28, 2024, up +19.8% from December 2023's Rp6,050 close - a bigger three-month move than the entire H2 2023 gain. The rally was steady across the quarter, not a single spike: Rp6,650 at end-January, Rp7,000 at end-February, Rp7,250 at end-March. Against Q1 2023's Rp5,162.5 close (no further stock split has occurred since the 1:2 split that took effect April 2023, so both prices are on the same nominal, actually-quoted basis), that's a +40.4% YoY move - a share price rally running far ahead of the 1.1% profit growth disclosed the same quarter (see Target Valuation Range below for what that gap does to the multiples). Over the full two-year window from March 2022's Rp3,950 close, shares are up +83.5%.
Beyond the Usual
The FY2023 dividend, paid this quarter, was 33.7% larger than FY2022's - and explains all of the equity drop
Mandiri paid Rp33.04 trillion in dividends during Q1 2024 (representing the FY2023 profit distribution), up 33.7% from the Rp24.70 trillion dividend paid during 2023 (representing FY2022 profit) that the FY2023 post already flagged. The dividend increase tracks FY2023's own 33.7% net income growth almost exactly - a payout ratio the bank has kept consistent rather than expanding or contracting. This single cash outflow, disclosed in the cash flow statement's financing activities, is the entire explanation for the 7.7% quarterly equity decline in Key Financial Metrics above: it's the same mechanical pattern the H1 2023 post found for the FY2022 dividend, just larger this time and landing a quarter earlier in the year.
The bank-only capital ratio fell YoY for the first time in this backfill
Bank-only CAR of 19.01% at Q1 2024 is down from 19.52% a year earlier - every prior quarter in this backfill showed CAR improving YoY. The absolute level remains well above regulatory minimums (Indonesia's minimum CAR requirement plus buffers sits well below 19%, and the filing's own capital-buffer disclosure shows Mandiri comfortably exceeding its capital conservation and countercyclical buffer requirements), so this isn't a solvency concern. But it's worth watching alongside the LDR increase above: a bank funding faster loan growth with a shrinking deposit base and a slightly thinner capital cushion than a year ago is carrying more risk on two fronts at once, even if neither is currently alarming on its own.
Related-party lending is again only disclosed on the narrow bank-only basis
The bank-only legal-lending-limit disclosure this quarter shows related-party financing violations and excesses both at 0.00% for related parties and third parties alike (Mar 2024 and Mar 2023 both reading zero on both counts), the standard compliance framing this filing type uses. As the H1 2023 post found, the accounting standard's full BUMN-wide related-party definition (which includes other state-owned enterprises as related parties, not just management and direct affiliates) puts related-party lending at a much larger 17.53% of the consolidated loan book - a figure this quarter's filing, like every quarter since it was first found, doesn't disclose or update.
Mandiri's board saw three leadership transitions finalize this quarter, all tied to the same March shareholder meeting
The filing's management notes disclose that at Mandiri's Annual General Meeting of Shareholders on March 7, 2024, Zainudin Amali was appointed Deputy President Commissioner, Tedi Bharata was appointed to the Board of Commissioners, and Totok Priyambodo was appointed Director of Commercial Banking - all contingent on regulatory Fit and Proper Test approval from the Financial Services Authority before taking effect. This is routine governance disclosure rather than a finding about the business, but it's a reminder that Mandiri's board composition, like any BUMN bank, turns over on a political and administrative cadence tied to shareholder meetings rather than purely commercial timing.
Target Valuation Range
Market cap Rp676.67 trillion (~$42.68B), ~2.8x P/B, ~12.3x P/E. Bottom line: Mandiri's Q1 2024 rally pushed both multiples meaningfully above where the FY2023 post left them - a trailing P/E of roughly 12.3x and P/B of roughly 2.8x for a bank whose bank-only ROE just fell to 21.52% is a re-rating that's running ahead of, not behind, the quarter's actual profit growth (1.1%), making this the first quarter in the backfill where the stock looks more expensive on a slowing earnings trend rather than a strengthening one.
Using trailing-twelve-month net income of Rp55,202,064M (FY2023's Rp55,060,057M, less Q1 2023's Rp12,560,171M, plus Q1 2024's Rp12,702,178M) and the post-split share count of 93,333,333,332:
| Market cap → book value | Q1 2024 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp7,250 |
| Shares outstanding | 93,333,333,332 |
| Market capitalization | Rp676.67 trillion (~$42.68B) |
| Total equity (book value) | Rp240,686,777M |
| Book value per share | Rp2,579.15 |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B | 2.2x | 2.8x | up |
| P/E | 10.3x | 12.3x | up |
P/E: ~12.3x, using TTM EPS of approximately Rp591.45, against the Rp7,250 close on March 28, 2024. P/B: ~2.8x, using book value per share of approximately Rp2,579.15 (Rp240,686,777M total equity attributable to owners ÷ 93,333,333,332 shares). Market capitalization: approximately Rp676.67 trillion (~$42.68B). Both multiples now sit closer to BBCA's historical range on a similar ROE profile (~18x P/E, ~3.3x P/B in its earliest backfilled quarters - see BCA's Q1 2016 post, directional context rather than a same-period read) than Mandiri has traded at any prior quarter in this backfill. That's a meaningfully different setup than the FY2023 post described: there, multiples sat below where a 27%+ ROE bank with improving asset quality would typically trade, which read as room to re-rate. Here, the re-rating has already happened while the underlying ROE fell to 21.52% and profit growth stalled to 1.1% - the gap between price and fundamentals has narrowed from the "cheap" side, not widened from the "expensive" side, but it's now a gap worth watching in the other direction. A real DCF remains the natural next step once enough of 2024's quarters clarify whether Q1's profit deceleration was a one-off seasonal effect or the start of a genuine trend.
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk's Q1 2024 published consolidated and individual financial statements ("Laporan Keuangan Konsolidasian dan Individual"), for the three-month period ended March 31, 2024 (unaudited), via Bank Mandiri's investor relations page.