The Quarter That Undid Three Quarters of Decline
The Q3 2025 post closed with a bank whose profit had fallen for two straight quarters - a milder ~14.2% YoY decline in Q3 than Q2's ~18.7% collapse, but a decline all the same, driven by salary costs and impairment charges that had both accelerated even as promotion spending finally eased. Bank Mandiri's audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025 answer what happened next, and the answer is a genuine reversal, not a continuation. Full-year consolidated net income attributable to owners came in at Rp56,293,950 million, up just 0.92% YoY from FY2024's Rp55,782,742 million - a number that looks almost flat, and would read as an unremarkable year if that were the whole story. It isn't. Because 9M 2025 net income was already down 10.2% YoY (per the Q3 2025 post), isolating Q4 2025 standalone (FY minus 9M) puts the quarter's net income at Rp18,563,808 million against Q4 2024's Rp13,765,388 million - a jump of roughly 34.9% YoY, the sharpest single-quarter move, in either direction, this backfill has tracked. Bank-only (individual) figures tell the same story: Q4 2025 standalone individual net income was up roughly 38.1% YoY (Rp16,743,770 million vs Rp12,129,451 million).
What actually reversed is the cost side, not the revenue side. Isolating Q4 standalone consolidated net interest, sharia and insurance income shows growth of just -0.6% YoY (Rp28,201,575 million vs Rp28,372,646 million) - essentially flat, continuing the deceleration this backfill has tracked since H1. The turnaround instead came from impairment charges on financial assets, which collapsed roughly 60.1% YoY in Q4 standalone (Rp928,058 million vs Q4 2024's Rp2,325,971 million) - a sharp reversal of Q3's +43.8% YoY surge - and from salary and labor expense growth decelerating to roughly +10.1% YoY consolidated standalone (Rp6,432,105 million vs Rp5,840,000 million), a third of Q3's +36.9% pace. Promotion expense kept falling, down roughly 14.4% YoY standalone (Rp801,308 million vs Rp936,301 million), continuing Q3's reversal of H1's spending spree. A bank whose credit costs and personnel-cost growth both eased sharply in the same quarter revenue growth stayed flat isn't recovering because business got better - it's recovering because the cost base that inflated through H1 and Q3 finally normalized. Full-year Operating Income (Profit from Operations) tells the same "quarter did the work" story: it grew just 0.33% YoY consolidated (Rp76,310,739 million vs Rp76,059,595 million) for the full year, meaning nine months of decline were almost entirely offset by one strong quarter.
The Prescription
Mandiri's real task now is to prove Q4's cost discipline was a genuine reset, not a one-quarter favor from lower credit costs that could just as easily reverse again next year. The operational move: hold impairment charges and salary growth at roughly their Q4 pace through 2026, rather than letting either re-accelerate the way both did through H1 and Q3 2025 - the swing between quarters this year (promotion up 6x in H1, reversing in Q3 and Q4; impairment up 43.8% in Q3, down 60.1% in Q4) shows a cost base that isn't yet under steady control, just oscillating between extremes. Publishing a segment-level income statement - missing for a third straight reporting period, as Beyond the Usual below discusses - would let a reader (and the bank's own board) confirm whether Q4's improvement is broad-based or concentrated in a specific lending segment, rather than taking the consolidated swing on faith.
What it should stop doing: funding a growing deposit base almost entirely through expensive time deposits while letting bank-only CASA» keep falling. CASA didn't stabilize alongside the profit recovery - it kept eroding, to 70.83% at December 2025 from September 2025's 73.13% and December 2024's 80.31% (see Beyond the Usual), a nearly 10-point swing across the full year. The one silver lining is that bank-only Loan-to-Deposit Ratio» (LDR) actually fell sharply, to 88.92% from December 2024's record 98.04%, because deposit growth (funded mostly by that expensive Deposito book) outran loan growth for the year. A bank cannot call its funding position solved while it is buying loan-to-deposit relief with its most expensive funding source - the two trends look contradictory only until you see they're the same trade.
Key Financial Metrics
FY2025 vs FY2024 (P&L, consolidated), and December 31, 2025 vs December 31, 2024 (balance sheet, consolidated)
FX: IDR 16,675.00 = USD 1 (December 31, 2025 close, per the bank's own filed exchange-rate disclosure); IDR 16,095.00 = USD 1 (December 31, 2024 close, per the same disclosure, consistent with the FY2024 post).
| Metric | FY2025 (IDR) | FY2025 (USD) | FY2024 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest, sharia & insurance income ("Net Revenue" equivalent) | Rp106,760,450M | ~$6.40B | Rp104,277,733M | ✅ +2.4% |
| Operating Income (Profit from Operations) | Rp76,310,739M | ~$4.58B | Rp76,059,595M | ⚠️ +0.3% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp56,293,950M | ~$3.38B | Rp55,782,742M | ⚠️ +0.9% |
| EPS (basic, full-year) | Rp603.23 | ~$0.036 | Rp597.67 | ⚠️ +0.9% |
Operating cash flow for FY2025 was Rp206,540,138M (~$12.38B), against fixed- and intangible-asset capex of Rp7,504,327M - a dramatic full-year reversal from FY2024's negative operating cash flow (per the FY2024 post), on deposits outgrowing loans for the full year. As with any bank, this swing reflects balance-sheet growth, not a free-cash-flow figure. Total cash and cash equivalents at period-end is Rp379,877,189M (~$22.78B), up from Rp244,038,123M a year earlier.
| Balance sheet metric | Dec 31, 2025 (IDR) | Dec 31, 2025 (USD) | Dec 31, 2024 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp2,829,948,026M | ~$169.71B | Rp2,427,223,262M | ✅ +16.6% |
| Loans (gross, Kredit) | Rp1,849,967,956M | ~$110.97B | Rp1,623,216,612M | ⚠️ +14.0% |
| Total Deposits (Giro + Tabungan + Deposito, incl. sharia) | Rp2,105,764,151M | ~$126.28B | Rp1,698,896,916M | ⚠️ +23.9% |
| Total Equity (attributable to owners) | Rp293,750,669M | ~$17.62B | Rp283,796,429M | ✅ +3.5% |
FY2025 net income grew just 0.9% YoY headline - but Q4 2025 standalone profit jumped roughly 34.9% YoY, reversing three straight quarterly declines (Q1 up ~3.9%, Q2 down ~18.7%, Q3 down ~14.2%). See The Quarter That Undid Three Quarters of Decline above.
Key Operational Metrics
All ratios below are bank-only (Individual), as filed in the bank's own Statement of Financial Ratios and capital-calculation appendices. No results presentation or transcript was filed this quarter, so consolidated-basis NIM/NPL/ROA/ROE/CIR aren't available - the same gap as Q2 and Q3 2025.
- Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) - bank-only, filed: 88.92%, down sharply from December 2024's record 98.04% and from Q3 2025's 92.55% - the sharpest full-year relief this backfill has tracked, driven by deposits (mostly Deposito) outgrowing loans.
- CAR (capital adequacy)» - bank-only (Individual): 19.36%, down from 20.10% a year earlier but up from Q3 2025's 19.04% - a fourth straight quarter of sequential recovery from Q1 2025's 17.29% crash. Consolidated CAR: 20.43%, down from FY2024's consolidated 20.82%.
- ROA» - after tax - bank-only: 3.19%, down from 3.71% a year earlier, but up from Q3 2025's 2.93% - Q4's profit reversal pulled the annualized ratio back up.
- ROE» - after tax - bank-only: 23.15%, down from 24.19% a year earlier, but up from Q3 2025's 21.24% - the same Q4 effect.
- NIM» - bank-only: 4.59%, down from 4.93% a year earlier - unchanged from Q3 2025's 4.59%, so Q4 alone didn't move the margin either direction.
- NPL» ratio - gross - bank-only: 0.96%, essentially flat YoY (0.97% a year earlier) and improved sequentially from Q3 2025's 1.03%. Net NPL: 0.40%, up from 0.33% a year earlier, unchanged from Q3's 0.40%.
- Cost-to-Income Ratio» (CIR) - bank-only: 41.23%, better than Q3's cumulative 43.05% - Q4 alone pulled the full-year ratio down, the mirror image of FY2024, where the full-year CIR (35.04%) was worse than Q3 2024's cumulative 32.12%, meaning Q4 2024 was the weak quarter that year. Still meaningfully worse than FY2023's level.
- BOPO» - bank-only: 63.48%, unchanged from Q3 2025's cumulative level, up from 54.68% a year earlier - the widest efficiency ratio in this backfill, even after Q4's improvement elsewhere.
- Net Open Position (NOP)» - overall: bank-only 1.76%, up from 1.00% a year earlier and up sharply from Q3 2025's 1.16% - reversing three straight quarters of decline from Q1 2025's 3.67% spike (see Beyond the Usual).
- Not available this quarter: a segment-level income statement (present in Q1 2025 and FY2024, absent for a third straight reporting period now - see Beyond the Usual); a results presentation or earnings call transcript; consolidated-basis NIM/NPL/ROA/ROE/CIR.
Beyond the Usual
The segment note stayed missing for a third straight period, right as profit swung the other way
The Q2 2025 post and Q3 2025 post both flagged the absence of Mandiri's segment-level income statement - present in Q1 2025 and FY2024, missing every quarter since. This annual filing is again the abridged OJK-format regulatory publication rather than the fuller statements that carried the segment note, so the gap is now three periods running, and it's arguably the worst timing yet: Q4 2025's profit reversal - impairment charges collapsing roughly 60% YoY, salary growth decelerating sharply (see above) - could be a genuine, broad-based cost-discipline reset, or it could be concentrated in one or two lending segments while others kept deteriorating. Without the segment note, there is no way to tell which, and the Head Office cost-reallocation pattern this backfill documented through FY2024 and Q1 2025 remains unconfirmed for a full year now.
Bank-only CASA fell for a full year even as the profit story improved
The Q3 2025 post found bank-only CASA» falling to 73.13% at September 2025 from December 2024's 80.31%. That decline continued through year-end: bank-only CASA fell further to 70.83% at December 2025 - a 9.48-percentage-point drop for the full year - driven by the same deposit-mix shift flagged last quarter. Bank-only time deposits (Deposito) grew from Rp261,314,782 million at December 2024 to Rp488,615,728 million at December 2025, an 87.0% increase for the year, while current accounts (Giro) grew 16.1% and savings accounts (Tabungan) grew 6.1% over the same period. The one thing that changed direction is what CASA erosion no longer explains: NIM held flat at 4.59% between Q3 and Q4 rather than compressing further, and LDR actually fell sharply to 88.92% (from Q3's 92.55% and a record 98.04% a year earlier) because deposit growth outran loan growth. Mandiri bought loan-to-deposit relief with its most expensive funding source, which is real progress on liquidity but not on funding cost - the two can't both be called "resolved" from the same trend.
The bank's swap book shrank for the first time this backfill, while its currency-risk position widened
The Q2 2025 and Q3 2025 posts both tracked bank-only swap notional growing every quarter (Rp186,373,000 million at June 30, 2025 to Rp210,532,680 million at September 30, 2025) - the largest single derivative-instrument category by a wide margin. That growth reversed this quarter: bank-only swap notional fell to Rp203,687,044 million at December 31, 2025, down from September's Rp210,532,680 million. At the same time, bank-only Net Open Position - overall jumped to 1.76% from Q3's 1.16%, reversing three straight quarters of decline from Q1 2025's 3.67% spike (see above). A shrinking swap book alongside a widening open FX position is a genuinely mixed signal: less gross hedging activity, but a larger net currency exposure - worth watching given the Rupiah moved further against the Dollar again this year (see below).
Guarantees issued grew faster than the balance sheet itself
Bank Mandiri's commitments-and-contingencies footnote shows consolidated guarantees issued reaching Rp184,400,163 million at December 31, 2025, up from Rp150,866,192 million a year earlier - a 22.2% increase, outpacing both total-asset growth (16.6%) and loan growth (14.0%) for the year. Guarantees issued are an off-balance-sheet commitment, not a funded loan, but they represent real contingent exposure the headline balance sheet doesn't carry - a genuinely faster-growing line than the core lending book this year.
A governance-rating disclosure still references periods that ended eighteen months ago
The filing's standard notes section states: "Bank Mandiri's Individual Governance Factor Rating for the year ended December 2024 and for the period ended June 2025 is 2 (Good)." This same boilerplate sentence, referencing a December 2024/June 2025 rating period, also appeared verbatim in the September 2025 filing reviewed for the Q3 2025 post - a full annual filing for the year ended December 2025 repeating a note that hasn't been updated to reference the period it's actually attached to. It's a minor drafting artifact in an abridged regulatory template, not a substantive disclosure problem, but it's the kind of thing that's easy to miss when comparing quarters mechanically rather than reading the footnotes each time.
Bank Mandiri Shares Rebounded as the Rupiah Kept Weakening
The Q3 2025 post closed at Rp4,400 on September 30, 2025, itself a -9.8% quarterly move and the low point of this backfill's price window. That decline reversed in the fourth quarter: shares recovered to Rp4,720 at end-October, Rp4,830 at end-November, and closed the year at Rp5,100 on December 30, 2025 - a +15.9% net move for the quarter, tracking the earnings recovery described above. Even so, December 2025's Rp5,100 close is still -10.5% below December 2024's Rp5,700 (itself already a down year), and roughly -10.1% below the two-year window's starting point, October 2023's Rp5,675 close - essentially flat over the full two years despite that window including a run to Rp7,250 in March 2024. Peak-to-trough, shares fell roughly 39.3% from that March 2024 high to September 2025's low, easily clearing this playbook's threshold for a dedicated price section, before Q4's rebound clawed back part of that. The currency backdrop kept moving the other direction throughout: the Rupiah weakened further from Rp16,665/USD at September 30, 2025 to Rp16,675/USD at December 31, 2025 - a smaller move than prior quarters, but still a fourth straight quarterly depreciation, consistent with the currency-risk context noted above.
Coverage at a Glance
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2024 | YoY | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income (attributable to owners) | Rp56.29T | Rp55.78T | +0.9% | Headline barely moved, masking a sharp intra-year reversal |
| Implied Q4 2025 standalone net income | ~Rp18.56T | ~Rp13.77T | ~+34.9% | Reversed three straight quarters of decline - the sharpest move this backfill has tracked |
| Consolidated impairment charges (Q4 standalone, implied) | ~Rp0.93T | ~Rp2.33T | ~-60.1% | Collapsed after Q3's +43.8% surge - the main driver of the profit reversal |
| Consolidated salary/labor expense (Q4 standalone, implied) | ~Rp6.43T | ~Rp5.84T | ~+10.1% | A third of Q3's +36.9% pace - cost growth decelerated sharply |
| Bank-only CASA | 70.83% | 80.31% (Dec-24) | -9.48pp | Kept falling even as the profit story improved - not yet resolved |
| Bank-only LDR | 88.92% | 98.04% | -9.12pp | Deposits (mostly expensive time deposits) outgrew loans for the year |
| Bank-only CAR | 19.36% | 20.10% | -0.74pp | But up from Q3 2025's 19.04% - a fourth straight quarter of sequential recovery |
| Share price (Dec 30, 2025 close) | Rp5,100 | Rp5,700 | -10.5% | Rebounded 15.9% in Q4 but still below the year-ago close |
Target Valuation Range
Market cap Rp476.0 trillion (~$28.55B), ~1.62x P/B, ~8.5x P/E. Bottom line: Mandiri looks fairly valued to modestly cheap on trailing multiples given the Q4 earnings reversal, but the CASA erosion and missing segment note mean this remains a "confirm the reversal is structural" setup, not a clear re-rating opportunity yet.
Using full-year net income attributable to owners of Rp56,293,950M, full-year EPS of Rp603.23, and the post-split share count of 93,333,333,332:
| Market cap → book value | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp5,100 |
| Shares outstanding | 93,333,333,332 |
| Market capitalization | Rp476.0 trillion (~$28.55B) |
| Total equity (book value) | Rp293,750,669M |
| Book value per share | Rp3,147.68 |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B | 1.46x | 1.62x | up |
| P/E | 8.0x | 8.5x | up |
P/E: ~8.5x, using FY2025 EPS of Rp603.23 against the Rp5,100 close on December 30, 2025. P/B: ~1.62x, using book value per share of approximately Rp3,147.68 (Rp293,750,669M total equity attributable to owners ÷ 93,333,333,332 shares). Market capitalization: approximately Rp476.0 trillion (~$28.55B). That's a modest re-rating from the Q3 2025 post's ~8.0x P/E and ~1.46x P/B - both the share price and trailing earnings moved up together, so the P/E moved only slightly, while P/B rose more as the price recovery outran book-value growth. The two open questions from the Q3 2025 post are still open, in opposite directions: whether the cost swings (promotion, salary, impairment all moving sharply in different directions across the year) reflect one lending segment's problem or a genuine group-wide pattern still can't be checked (no segment note for a third straight period - see Beyond the Usual); and the funding picture, which looked like it might be stabilizing after Q2, kept deteriorating on the CASA measure all year even as LDR itself improved sharply. A reader buying the Q4 reversal at face value is betting the impairment collapse and salary deceleration hold into 2026 without a segment note to confirm where they actually came from.
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk's audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025 (with comparatives for December 31, 2024), via Bank Mandiri's investor relations page.