The Fifth Straight High, and the Sharpest Jump Yet
The Q2 2024 post closed on a bank whose profit growth had rebounded to roughly 9.3% YoY standalone, even as the bank-only Loan-to-Deposit Ratio» (LDR) pushed to a fourth consecutive backfill-high of 90.48%. This is Mandiri's published consolidated and individual financial statements for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024 (unaudited), and the pattern this backfill has tracked since Q1 2023 - loans consistently outrunning deposits - just produced its most dramatic single-quarter move yet.
Profit growth kept accelerating, for a second straight quarter. Consolidated net income attributable to owners for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 was Rp42,017,354 million, up 7.56% YoY from 9M 2023's Rp39,063,543 million. Isolating Q3 alone (9M minus the already-reported H1 figures): Mandiri earned Rp15,466,714 million in the third quarter, up from Rp13,831,656 million a year earlier, a standalone +11.82% YoY - faster than Q2's 9.29% and a second straight quarter of quarter-isolated acceleration since Q1's 1.1% trough (see Q1 2024). Operating income told a similar story: consolidated profit from operations rose 7.75% YoY through 9M, versus H1's 6.36% pace.
The LDR problem this backfill has tracked for six quarters just took its sharpest turn. Bank-only loans grew +7.38% QoQ to Rp1,240,837,941 million (matching Q2's own +7.38% pace almost exactly), while bank-only deposits - Giro, Tabungan and Deposito combined - grew only +0.85% QoQ, from Rp1,312.83 trillion to Rp1,323,988,353 million. That gap pushed the bank's own filed LDR from 90.48% at Q2-end straight to 93.15% at Q3-end - a 2.67 percentage-point jump in a single quarter, easily the largest quarterly move in this backfill's six-quarter climb (89.66% → 90.48% → 93.15%), and the first time Mandiri's bank-only LDR has crossed 93% in any period this blog has covered. Consolidated LDR (computed from the filed balance sheet: Rp1,541,981,352 million loans ÷ Rp1,667,496,941 million deposits) moved the same way, from 90.09% to 92.48%.
The Prescription
The Q2 2024 post argued Mandiri needs deposit growth that doesn't depend on a single quarter-end placement wave to keep the LDR in check. Q3 is the sharpest evidence yet that this hasn't happened: deposit growth all but stalled (+0.85% QoQ) while loan growth held its pace from the prior quarter, and the LDR absorbed the entire gap. The operational move now isn't "sharpen the prescription" - it's follow through on it: Mandiri's wholesale-heavy loan book needs to actually slow its own growth rate for at least one quarter to let deposits catch up, rather than treating each new LDR high as tolerable because the ratio still sits below the regulatory ceiling. A bank that keeps growing loans at 7%+ QoQ while deposits crawl at under 1% is one soft deposit quarter away from a funding squeeze, not a comfortable cushion.
What it should stop doing: treating CASA» stability as guaranteed. Bank-only CASA - computed from the filed balance sheet as Giro plus Tabungan over total deposits - slipped to 78.37% this quarter, down from Q2's 79.69% and effectively flat with Dec 2023's 79.40% only in the sense that it's now moving the wrong direction for the first time in this backfill. A bank funding record loan growth against a thinning cheap-deposit base is stacking two pressures at once, not one.
Key Financial Metrics
9M 2024 vs 9M 2023 (P&L, consolidated), and September 30, 2024 vs December 31, 2023 (balance sheet, consolidated)
FX: IDR 15,140.00 = USD 1 (September 30, 2024 close, per the bank's own filed exchange-rate disclosure); IDR 15,397.00 = USD 1 (December 31, 2023 close, per the same disclosure); IDR 15,455.00 = USD 1 (September 30, 2023 close, per the same disclosure).
| Metric | 9M 2024 (IDR) | 9M 2024 (USD) | 9M 2023 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest, sharia & premium income, net ("Net Revenue" equivalent) | Rp75,905,087M | ~$5.01B | Rp73,450,328M | ⚠️ +3.3% |
| Operating Income (profit from operations) | Rp57,325,982M | ~$3.79B | Rp53,201,532M | ✅ +7.8% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp42,017,354M | ~$2.78B | Rp39,063,543M | ✅ +7.6% |
| EPS (basic, 9M cumulative) | Rp450.19 | ~$0.0297 | Rp418.54 | ✅ +7.6% |
Operating cash flow for 9M 2024 was approximately negative Rp66.08 trillion (~-$4.37B; against about Rp3.66 trillion of fixed- and intangible-asset capex) - a meaningful improvement from 9M 2023's -Rp121.10 trillion, but a sharp deterioration from H1 2024's already-negative -Rp25.99 trillion (see Q2 2024 post), meaning Q3 alone added roughly -Rp40.09 trillion of negative operating cash flow as the quarter's fast loan growth was funded more by drawing on cash than by fresh deposits. Total cash and cash equivalents at period-end is Rp209,018,936M (~$13.80B), up slightly from Rp206,093,448M at the end of Q2 but still well below Rp243,801,693M at the start of the year.
| Balance sheet metric | Sep 30, 2024 (IDR) | Sep 30, 2024 (USD) | Dec 31, 2023 (IDR) | Change since Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp2,323,990,548M | ~$153.50B | Rp2,174,219,449M | ✅ +6.9% |
| Loans (gross, Kredit) | Rp1,541,981,352M | ~$101.85B | Rp1,359,832,195M | ✅ +13.4% |
| Total Deposits (Giro + Tabungan + Deposito, incl. sharia) | Rp1,667,496,941M | ~$110.14B | Rp1,576,949,619M | ⚠️ +5.7% |
| Total Equity (attributable to owners) | Rp272,119,367M | ~$17.97B | Rp260,852,784M | ✅ +4.3% |
Equity has now fully recovered from Q1's dividend-driven drop and then some: from Rp240,686,777M at Q1-end to Rp254,353,493M at Q2-end to Rp272,119,367M at Q3-end, a cumulative +13.1% climb from the Q1 trough as three quarters of retained earnings accumulate.
Q3 2024 standalone net income grew roughly 11.8% YoY - a second straight quarter of quarter-isolated acceleration - but the bank-only LDR jumped 2.67 points in a single quarter to a record 93.15%, its sharpest move in this backfill. See The Fifth Straight High, and the Sharpest Jump Yet above.
Key Operational Metrics
Bank-only ratios are from the bank's own filed Statements of Financial Ratios (Sep 2024 vs Sep 2023); consolidated figures are computed directly from the filed consolidated statements, marked "computed"
- Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) - bank-only: 93.15%, up from 87.64% a year earlier and up sharply from Q2 2024's 90.48% - a new backfill high for a fifth straight quarter, and the single largest quarterly jump this blog has recorded for Mandiri. Consolidated: 92.48% (computed: Rp1,541,981,352M loans ÷ Rp1,667,496,941M deposits), up from Q2's computed 90.09%.
- CASA ratio - bank-only: 78.37% (computed: Rp1,037,631,475M demand + saving deposits ÷ Rp1,323,988,353M total deposits), down from Q2 2024's 79.69% - the first sequential CASA decline this backfill has recorded. Consolidated: 73.85% (computed: Rp1,231,368,979M demand + saving deposits ÷ Rp1,667,496,941M total deposits).
- NIM» - bank-only: 4.91%, down from 5.35% a year earlier and essentially flat versus Q2 2024's 4.92%.
- NPL» ratio - gross: bank-only 0.97%, down from Q2 2024's 1.01% and from 1.36% a year earlier - the improvement in asset quality continues even as the LDR climbs.
- NPL ratio - net: bank-only 0.33%, flat versus Q2 2024's 0.33% and up from 0.32% a year earlier.
- CAR (capital adequacy)»: bank-only 20.08%, down from 20.68% a year earlier - a third straight quarter this backfill has recorded a YoY CAR decline, though up sequentially from Q2's 19.35% and still comfortably above regulatory minimums.
- ROA - after tax: bank-only 3.71%, down from 3.85% a year earlier, up from Q2 2024's 3.58% as more of the year's earnings accrue into the annualized figure.
- ROE - after tax: bank-only 25.21%, down from 26.34% a year earlier, up from Q2 2024's 24.39% for the same reason.
- Cost-to-Income Ratio» (CIR): bank-only 32.12%, improved both YoY (33.94% a year earlier) and QoQ (32.43% at Q2 2024).
- Operating Expenses to Operating Income (BOPO): bank-only 54.68%, down from Q2 2024's 55.88% and up from 52.92% a year earlier - the seasonal-spike story Q2's post tracked has continued to improve sequentially but still hasn't closed the YoY gap.
- Not available in this filing: an internal segment income-statement or NPL breakdown by Wholesale/Retail/Commercial banking, and no results presentation or earnings call transcript was filed alongside this quarter's published statement - the segment-level thread first opened in H1 2023 and last updated in 9M 2023 remains unresolved five quarters running.
Mandiri Shares Recovered Most of Q2's Drop, Even as the LDR Kept Climbing
The Q2 2024 post closed with shares down 15.2% from March's close to Rp6,150, even as Q2 profit growth accelerated. Q3 2024 reversed most of that: shares rose to Rp6,400 at end-July, then Rp7,125 at end-August, before easing back to Rp6,925 by September 30, 2024 - a net +12.6% gain for the quarter, pulling back only modestly (-2.8%) from August's peak. Against September 2023's Rp6,025 close, September 2024's Rp6,925 is up +14.9% YoY (no stock split has occurred since the 1:2 split that took effect April 2023, so both prices are on the same nominal, actually-quoted basis). Unlike Q1, where the stock rallied on decelerating earnings, and unlike Q2, where it fell despite accelerating earnings, Q3's rally and the earnings acceleration moved in the same direction for the first time in three quarters.
Beyond the Usual
Bank-only CASA declined sequentially for the first time in this backfill
Bank-only CASA fell to 78.37% at Q3 2024-end from 79.69% at Q2 2024-end - the first sequential decline this backfill has recorded for a ratio that had held essentially flat (79.40% → 79.44% → 79.69%) through the first half of the year (see Q2 2024 post). One quarter of decline isn't yet a trend, but it's arriving at the same moment as this quarter's sharpest-yet LDR jump (see above) - a bank simultaneously funding record loan growth and losing ground on its cheapest funding source is a combination worth watching into Q4, not dismissing as noise.
Bank-only capital adequacy fell YoY for a third straight quarter
Bank-only CAR of 20.08% at Q3 2024 is down from 20.68% a year earlier - the Q1 2024 post flagged the first YoY CAR decline in this backfill, Q2 extended it to two straight quarters, and this is now three in a row, even as the absolute ratio recovered sequentially (19.35% → 20.08%). The level remains well above regulatory minimums and the filing's own capital-buffer disclosure shows Mandiri comfortably clearing its capital conservation and countercyclical buffer requirements. But a capital cushion that's now been thinner than the prior year for three consecutive quarters, arriving alongside the LDR's sharpest jump yet, is a trend this blog will keep tracking rather than treat as settled.
The bank's currency-risk exposure ticked back up sequentially, but is still down YoY
Mandiri's disclosed Net Open Position (overall) - a regulatory measure of how exposed the bank's balance sheet is to foreign-exchange rate swings - rose to 0.93% at September 2024 from 0.68% at June 2024 (see Q2 2024 post), but remains down from 1.23% a year earlier and well inside Bank Indonesia's regulatory ceiling in both periods. A modest sequential increase in open currency exposure, still comfortably below where it sat a year ago, isn't itself concerning - but it's a genuinely obscure line in the compliance section of the filing that a reader would never see in an earnings deck, and it moved in the opposite direction from the prior quarter's "trimmed exposure into IDR weakness" finding.
The primary Rupiah reserve requirement kept falling
Mandiri's disclosed average primary Rupiah reserve requirement fell further to 5.17% at September 2024, from 7.89% a year earlier and down slightly from 5.41% at June 2024 (see Q2 2024 post) - a regulatory ratio set by Bank Indonesia, not a bank-specific choice, but one that directly affects how much of Mandiri's Rupiah liquidity is locked up non-earning at the central bank versus available for lending. A roughly 2.7 percentage-point reduction from a year earlier is a real, continuing liquidity tailwind that helps explain how the bank kept funding this quarter's fast loan growth despite the near-stall in deposit growth.
Third-party COVID-era restructured loans kept shrinking
The filing's asset-quality table shows bank-only, non-related-party restructured loans (the COVID-era relief book this blog has tracked since the FY2023 post found it down to 1.58% of the loan book at year-end) falling further in absolute terms, to Rp73.17 trillion at September 2024 from Rp75.82 trillion at June 2024 (see Q2 2024 post) - a continued paydown of the pandemic-era restructuring overhang, consistent with the steady improvement this backfill has tracked in bank-only gross NPL (1.36% → 0.97% over the same twelve months).
Target Valuation Range
Market cap Rp646.33 trillion (~$42.69B), ~2.4x P/B, ~11.1x P/E. Bottom line: Mandiri is roughly fairly valued this quarter - the multiple expansion from ~10.2x to ~11.1x P/E tracked bank-only ROE's own rise from 24.39% to 25.21% almost proportionately, unlike Q1's re-rating that ran well ahead of decelerating earnings. This is the first quarter in three where the stock's move and the earnings trend actually agree with each other.
Using trailing-twelve-month net income of Rp58,013,868M (FY2023's Rp55,060,057M, less 9M 2023's Rp39,063,543M, plus 9M 2024's Rp42,017,354M) and the post-split share count of 93,333,333,332:
| Market cap → book value | Q3 2024 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp6,925 |
| Shares outstanding | 93,333,333,332 |
| Market capitalization | Rp646.33 trillion (~$42.69B) |
| Total equity (book value) | Rp272,119,367M |
| Book value per share | Rp2,915.57 |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B | 2.3x | 2.4x | up |
| P/E | 10.2x | 11.1x | up |
P/E: ~11.1x, using TTM EPS of approximately Rp621.58, against the Rp6,925 close on September 30, 2024. P/B: ~2.4x, using book value per share of approximately Rp2,915.57 (Rp272,119,367M total equity attributable to owners ÷ 93,333,333,332 shares). Market capitalization: approximately Rp646.33 trillion (~$42.69B). That's a more expensive setup than the Q2 2024 post's ~10.2x P/E and ~2.3x P/B, but the gap between price and fundamentals that opened up over Q1-Q2 (stock re-rating on decelerating earnings, then falling despite accelerating earnings) has closed rather than widened this quarter - both the multiple and the ROE moved up together. The real open question isn't valuation, though; it's whether this quarter's LDR jump (see above) is a one-quarter deposit lull that Q4 reverses, the way Q4 2023 once reversed a similar gap, or the start of a genuine funding constraint that eventually caps the loan growth currently driving the earnings acceleration this valuation is pricing in. A real DCF remains the natural next step once Q4 clarifies which of those two it is.
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk's 9M 2024 published consolidated and individual financial statements ("Laporan Keuangan Konsolidasian dan Individual"), for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024 (unaudited), via Bank Mandiri's investor relations page.