Full Recovery, Discounted Anyway
Standalone Q3 2022 net revenue was Rp960.76 billion (derived by subtracting the already-reported six-month cumulative from this filing's nine-month total), up 137.65% from Q3 2021's Rp404.28 billion. That YoY number is flattered by an unusually weak base - Q3 2021 sat inside Indonesia's Delta-wave PPKM Darurat mobility restrictions, which this site covered at the time as a real but comparatively shallow hit next to 2020's original lockdown. The more meaningful comparison is sequential: revenue rose 9.92% from Q2 2022's Rp874.08 billion, and consolidated operating margin improved again, from 13.60% to a new coverage-best 13.88%. The pattern Q2's post described - Taxi's margin snapping back hard once mobility normalizes - didn't reverse or plateau this quarter; it kept compounding, with both segments still near their own best-ever levels simultaneously.
The Company's own press release calls this "full recovery" almost literally: September 2022's monthly revenue reportedly reached roughly the same level as January-February 2020, before the pandemic. Free cash flow backs that up in a way the margin alone doesn't - it turned positive this quarter (+Rp79.51 billion) for the first time since Q4 2021, even with capex still elevated as fleet renewal continues.
None of that showed up in the share price. Blue Bird's stock closed the quarter at Rp1,355, down 19.35% from Q2 2022's Rp1,680 - the sharpest single-quarter decline this site has recorded since the pandemic's early quarters, and the opposite direction from every operating number above. See Target Valuation Range for what that does to the multiples.
The Prescription
Blue Bird should start disclosing the intra-quarter revenue cadence its own press release already gestures at (September's revenue near pre-pandemic levels) as a standard monthly metric in the filing itself, not just a narrative claim in the press release - a market that watched the stock fall 19% in a quarter where every fundamental metric hit a record either isn't reading the operating numbers closely enough or is pricing in a risk the filing doesn't quantify (the press release's own mention of rising fuel costs from a government fuel-price policy change is the most likely candidate, but it's never sized). What it should stop doing: letting a new civil lawsuit naming the Company and some of its own shareholders as defendants sit in a single boilerplate paragraph with no further context on what "obstructed" shareholder rights in the affiliated companies actually means (see Beyond the Usual) - a claim naming the Company's own shareholders as co-defendants is exactly the kind of governance-adjacent disclosure that deserves more than a one-paragraph mention, even while the case sits in mediation.
Key Financial Metrics
Q3 2022 vs. Q3 2021, standalone quarter (both derived by subtracting the six-month cumulative from each filing's nine-month total)
FX: IDR 15,247 = USD 1 (Bank Indonesia middle rate, September 30, 2022, as disclosed in this filing) - the Rupiah weakened a further 1.76% from Q2 2022's Rp14,984.
| Metric | Q3 2022 (IDR) | Q3 2022 (USD) | Q3 2021 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | Rp960.76B | ~$63.0M | Rp404.28B | ✅ +137.65% |
| Adjusted EBITDA» | Rp244.33B | ~$16.0M | Rp53.40B | ✅ +357.55% |
| Operating Income» | Rp133.36B | ~$8.7M | -Rp54.92B | ✅ Swung to profit |
| Net Income» (attributable to owners) | Rp114.45B | ~$7.5M | -Rp36.06B | ✅ Swung to profit |
| Free Cash Flow» (Op. CF minus capex) | Rp79.51B | ~$5.2M | -Rp11.63B | ✅ Swung to positive |
| Total Cash (period-end) | Rp965.05B | ~$63.3M | Rp739.90B | ✅ +30.44% |
| EPS (basic, quarter, derived) | ~Rp46 | ~$0.0030 | ~-Rp14 | ✅ Swung to profit |
Sequentially the quarter still added, just at a gentler pace than Q2's snapback. Against Q2 2022's Rp874.08 billion revenue, Q3 revenue rose 9.92%, operating income rose 12.20% (Rp118.86B to Rp133.36B), and net income to owners rose 15.57% (Rp99.04B to Rp114.45B). Free cash flow's swing to positive is the more notable sequential move - Q2 was still negative (-Rp18.48B) as capex accelerated; this quarter operating cash flow rose further (Rp188.72B to ~Rp280.55B) while capex actually eased back (Rp207.20B to ~Rp201.05B), the first quarter since the fleet-renewal push began that cash generation comfortably outran spending.
| Balance sheet metric | Sep 2022 (IDR) | Sep 2022 (USD) | Dec 2021 (IDR) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp6,680.41B | ~$438.1M | Rp6,598.14B | ✅ +1.24% |
| Total Liabilities | Rp1,419.52B | ~$93.1M | Rp1,450.56B | ✅ -2.14% |
| Total Equity | Rp5,260.89B | ~$345.0M | Rp5,147.58B | ✅ +2.20% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio» (per filing) | 0.27x | - | 0.28x | ✅ Down from 0.28x |
Against Q2 2022's balance sheet, total liabilities fell 9.61% (Rp1,570.44B to Rp1,419.52B) as the Rp150.13 billion dividend approved in June was actually paid out in July, clearing the dividend-payable line that had inflated Q2's liabilities. Total bank loans kept falling too, from Q2 2022's Rp704.33 billion to roughly Rp635.78 billion - continuing the deleveraging this site has tracked since Q3 2020. This filing's own debt-to-equity figure (0.27x) again reconciles cleanly with a total-liabilities-over-equity calculation (Rp1,419.52B over Rp5,260.89B works out to almost exactly 0.27x), extending the clean read restored last quarter after Q1's mismatch.
Segment Performance
Blue Bird still reports the same two operating segments - Taxi and Non-Taxi - unchanged since Q1 2016's two-segment collapse.
Taxi
Net revenue Rp753.08 billion, up 165.44% YoY from Q3 2021's Rp283.77 billion, with an operating profit of Rp98.06 billion - a 13.02% margin, swinging from a -20.56% loss in the Delta-wave quarter a year earlier. Sequentially the margin improved again, from Q2 2022's coverage-best 12.52% to 13.02% - extending Taxi's own coverage-best streak for a second straight quarter. Segment assets fell to Rp6,328.81 billion, down 2.22% YoY from Q3 2021's Rp6,472.60 billion and down 2.78% sequentially from Q2 2022's Rp6,509.79 billion - the shrinking-asset-base, growing-revenue pattern this site has now tracked for three consecutive quarters.
Non-Taxi
Net revenue Rp207.76 billion, up 70.17% YoY from Q3 2021's Rp122.09 billion, with an operating margin of 16.73% - essentially flat against Q2 2022's coverage-best 17.37%, a small give-back but still comfortably the segment's second-best quarter on record. Segment assets rose 1.73% sequentially to Rp1,632.09 billion from Q2 2022's Rp1,604.38 billion - the first sequential asset growth this site has recorded for the segment in over a year, though it's still down 2.72% YoY from Q3 2021's Rp1,677.78 billion.
Segment Comparison
| Segment | Revenue (Q3 2022) | YoY Growth | Operating Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taxi | Rp753.08B (78.38%) | ✅ +165.44% | ✅ 13.02% (Q3 2022); 12.52% (Q2 2022) |
| Non-Taxi | Rp207.76B (21.62%) | ✅ +70.17% | ✅ 16.73% (Q3 2022); 17.37% (Q2 2022) |
Taxi's share of the two segments' combined revenue eased slightly to 78.38% from Q2 2022's 78.94% - the first quarter in over a year Taxi's revenue share didn't rise. The margin gap between the two segments kept narrowing: Non-Taxi's margin is now roughly 1.29x Taxi's, down from 1.39x last quarter and nearly 7x in Q1 2022. Both segments are still performing at or near coverage-best levels simultaneously for a second consecutive quarter - the strongest, most sustained read this site has recorded for the business since coverage began.
Key Operational Metrics
- Weighted average shares outstanding: 2,502,100,000, unchanged since the IPO.
- Permanent employees (Group basis): 3,077 as of September 30, 2022, up from 2,720 at June 30, 2022 - a net addition of 357 people in a single quarter, a new record, exceeding Q2 2022's then-record +290 for a second consecutive quarter of the largest headcount growth this site has tracked.
- Board of Commissioners compensation (Group basis, standalone quarter, derived): roughly Rp1.16 billion, down 65.18% from Q2 2022's Rp3.34 billion and down 48.75% YoY from Q3 2021's roughly Rp2.27 billion.
- Board of Directors compensation (Group basis, standalone quarter, derived): roughly Rp4.32 billion, down 65.98% from Q2 2022's Rp12.70 billion, though still up 15.36% YoY from Q3 2021's roughly Rp3.75 billion. See Beyond the Usual.
- Total bank loans (current and non-current combined): roughly Rp635.78 billion, down from Q2 2022's Rp704.33 billion.
- TAN's disclosed ownership: still not restated in this filing; last confirmed at 91.57% as of Dec 2019.
- Geographic revenue split (Jadetabek vs. outside Jadetabek) is still not disclosed, matching every prior filing.
- Still not available: any Gojek/GoPay integration volume or revenue metric, matching every filing since Q1 2020's first disclosure.
Beyond the Usual
A new civil lawsuit names the Company and some of its own shareholders as defendants
On July 25, 2022, a third party filed a civil lawsuit through the South Jakarta District Court against the Company, some of the Company's own shareholders, and affiliated companies, alleging that her rights as a shareholder in the affiliated companies had been obstructed. As of this filing, the case is still in mediation with no decision issued. The filing discloses the case registration number and the bare allegation but nothing about the specific affiliated companies involved, the size of the plaintiff's stake, or what "obstructed" means in practice - not enough to assess financial exposure, but naming some of the Company's own shareholders as co-defendants alongside the Company itself is a governance-adjacent detail worth tracking into future quarters, distinct from the long-running Acer Indonesia tablet-procurement litigation this site has covered separately since 2017.
Board compensation fell back to roughly its pre-AGM level the very next quarter
Last quarter's post flagged that Board of Commissioners and Directors compensation had jumped 216% and 844% quarter-on-quarter respectively, timed to the June 23 shareholders meeting, with no disclosed link to a specific performance metric. This quarter answers that question directly: standalone Q3 2022 Commissioners compensation fell 65.18% to roughly Rp1.16 billion, and Directors compensation fell 65.98% to roughly Rp4.32 billion - both landing much closer to pre-AGM quarterly run rates than to Q2's spike, even as YoY Directors compensation is still up 15.36%. This is consistent with an annual bonus or tantiem payment concentrated in the AGM quarter, exactly as this site guessed last quarter, rather than a new permanent compensation baseline.
The related-party rent footnote's stale comparative persists into a third consecutive quarter, even as the standalone share keeps falling
This quarter's related-party rent footnote again pairs the nine-month 2022 total against a comparative that's the same full fiscal-year 2021 figure that has now appeared as the "comparative" column in three straight quarterly filings, rather than a genuine same-period prior-year total. Backed out to a standalone-quarter basis, related-party rent was roughly Rp11.48 billion of an estimated Rp18.27 billion total rent for the quarter - a roughly 62.83% related-party share, continuing the gradual decline from Q2 2022's 71.16% and Q1's 73.10%. Whatever is driving related parties toward a smaller share of total rent has now moved for two consecutive quarters.
The pre-IPO land purchase commitment saw no movement this quarter
Of the 133,133 square meters of land the Company conditionally agreed to buy from related parties (PBM, GBB, PCD, and certain shareholders) across various dates in December 2012 ahead of Blue Bird's 2014 IPO, 100,931 square meters remain purchased as of September 30, 2022 - unchanged from June 30, 2022's 100,931 square meters (75.79%). After edging forward for the first time in several quarters last quarter, this quarter shows no incremental progress - still no disclosed cancellation of the remaining unexecuted purchases.
A related-party trademark license fee starts accruing for the first time next year
The Company's 2013 non-exclusive license from PCD, a related party, for the "Blue Bird," "Silver Bird," "Golden Bird," "Big Bird," and "Pusaka" trademarks carries a fee of 2% of annual net revenue starting from the license's 10th year - which, dated from the original July 2013 agreement, is 2023. This filing still shows no fee accrued, since the obligation hasn't started yet, but it's the first quarter this site's coverage puts the fee's start date within the next twelve months rather than several years out - a real future cost against net revenue that current margins don't yet reflect.
Target Valuation Range
Enterprise value ~Rp3,845B (~$252.1M), implying ~7.41x annualized P/E and ~0.66x P/B - modestly undervalued, and more so than last quarter. Every operating metric (revenue, margin, ROE, ROA, free cash flow) improved or held near a record this quarter, while the share price fell 19.35% and every price-based multiple compressed alongside it.
Blue Bird's stock closed Q3 2022 at Rp1,355, down 19.35% from Q2 2022's Rp1,680 - the sharpest single-quarter decline this site has recorded since the pandemic's early quarters, giving back most of the gain from Q2's two-year high. The press release's own mention of a government fuel-price increase and its potential inflationary and demand-side effects is the most plausible disclosed reason for market caution, though the filing never sizes that risk, and nothing in this quarter's actual results shows it materializing yet.
Against September 30, 2022 closing price of Rp1,355 (2,502,100,000 shares outstanding, unchanged):
| Market cap → enterprise value | Q3 2022 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp1,355 |
| Shares outstanding | 2,502,100,000 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp3,390.35B (~$222.4M) |
| Total liabilities | ~Rp1,419.52B |
| Less: cash and equivalents | ~Rp965.05B |
| Enterprise value | ~Rp3,844.82B (~$252.1M) |
Market cap is down 19.35% from ~Rp4,203.53B at Q2 2022's close.
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q2 2022 (annualized) | Q3 2022 (annualized) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | ~10.61x | ~7.41x (Q3 2022 net income Rp114.45B × 4) |
| P/B | ~0.83x | ~0.66x (book value/share ~Rp2,062) |
| Annualized ROE | ~7.81% | ~8.97% |
| Annualized ROA | ~6.00% | ~6.94% |
This is the clearest valuation disconnect this site has recorded for Blue Bird: every return-on-capital metric rose again this quarter while every price-based multiple fell, because the price moved and the fundamentals moved in opposite directions. Q2 2022's post noted the market had "only partly caught up" to the operating recovery; this quarter, on the numbers alone, it fell further behind rather than catching up further - a company posting record margins and its first positive free cash flow quarter in a year is, on this quarter's closing price, cheaper on every multiple than it was three months ago.
PT Blue Bird Tbk's consolidated financial statements as of September 30, 2022 and for the nine-month period then ended; press release dated October 28, 2022.