The Dividend Bill Comes Due Again
Over these 12 quarters: share price Rp2,100 to Rp1,485 (-29%); operating income 131 to 169 Rp billion; operating income margin 11.5% to 11.1%. One graph in actual numbers: bars are the quarter's operating income, over them the share price at quarter-end (left axis) and the operating income margin (right axis); each line is fitted to its own range, so read the timing, not the heights. Prices are adjusted for splits.
Blue Bird's Q2 2026 standalone net revenue rose 11.04% YoY to Rp1,519.20 billion from Rp1,368.19 billion (both derived by subtracting Q1 from each year's six-month cumulative filing - see Key Financial Metrics), continuing the double-digit topline growth of most of the last two years. But operating income fell 13.17% to Rp168.66 billion from Q2 2025's Rp194.24 billion, and net income attributable to owners fell 2.93% to Rp165.07 billion from Rp170.05 billion - costs are again growing faster than revenue, echoing the pattern seen through late 2025 and into Q1 2026.
The bigger move this quarter sits on the balance sheet. Blue Bird's Annual General Meeting (AGM) - the yearly shareholder meeting where the dividend payout is approved - raised the cash dividend to Rp166 per share, up 38.33% from last year's Rp120 - continuing the same mid-year payout pattern every June since 2022. Combined with total liabilities jumping 13.63% quarter-on-quarter to Rp3,856.42 billion, that payout pulled total equity down 3.92% sequentially to Rp6,229.25 billion, pushing debt-to-equity to ~0.62x - a new high, well past Q2 2025's then-record 0.50x and further above Q1 2026's 0.52x (see Balance Sheet). Free cash flow's shortfall did narrow sharply, to -Rp87.91 billion from -Rp201.99 billion a year ago, as capex eased - but the dividend, not operating performance, is what actually moved leverage this quarter.
The Prescription
Blue Bird should keep the capex discipline that narrowed free cash flow's shortfall by more than half - if that pace holds through the second half, it's a genuine improvement over 2025's heaviest-ever capex year. But it should stop treating the AGM dividend as a fixed, ever-growing commitment while leverage is already climbing on its own - raising the payout 38% in a quarter when debt-to-equity was already a still-elevated 0.52x pushed the ratio to 0.62x, and the filing still states no target leverage ceiling anywhere in its disclosure. A capital-intensive taxi business paying a growing dividend while also funding fleet renewal with debt is a choice management can defend, but not one it has yet explained.
Key Financial Metrics
Rp trillion; margin is operating income as a percent of net revenue, per quarter.
Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025, both standalone quarters derived by subtracting Q1 from the six-month cumulative filing
FX: approximately IDR 17,856 = USD 1 (market rate around June 30, 2026; this filing's own currency-risk note does not disclose a middle-rate figure this quarter, so USD conversions below are approximate, not filing-sourced).
| Metric | Q2 2026 (IDR) | Q2 2026 (USD, approx.) | Q2 2025 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | Rp1,519.20B | ~$85.1M | Rp1,368.19B | +11.04% |
| Adjusted EBITDA» | Rp345.83B | ~$19.4M | Rp347.39B | -0.45% |
| Operating Income» | Rp168.66B | ~$9.4M | Rp194.24B | -13.17% |
| Net Income» (attributable to owners) | Rp165.07B | ~$9.2M | Rp170.05B | -2.93% |
| Free Cash Flow» (Op. CF minus capex) | -Rp87.91B | ~-$4.9M | -Rp201.99B | Narrowed sharply |
| Total Cash (period-end) | Rp1,358.09B | ~$76.1M | Rp1,089.93B | +24.60% |
| EPS (basic, quarter) | ~Rp66 | ~$0.0037 | ~Rp68 | -2.93% |
Adjusted EBITDA held almost flat YoY (-0.45%) even as operating income fell 13.17% - depreciation, not weaker cash generation, again explains most of the gap. Standalone depreciation rose to Rp177.17 billion from Q1's Rp189.81 billion base pace, large enough that adding it back to the falling operating-income line keeps EBITDA close to flat. This is the same gap seen in Q3 2025 and Q1 2026 - a reader who checks only Adjusted EBITDA this quarter would again miss that operating profitability, after the fleet's real depreciation cost, is worse than a year ago.
Free cash flow's improvement is a real capex story. Operating cash flow came in at Rp275.53 billion (vs. Rp254.76 billion a year ago), while capex fell to Rp363.43 billion from Rp456.74 billion - continuing the pullback Q1 2026 started. Total cash still rose both YoY (+24.60%) and held roughly flat sequentially from Q1 2026's Rp1,366.63 billion, even with the larger dividend outflow this quarter - suggesting the payout was funded more from fresh borrowing than from drawing down cash reserves.
Balance Sheet
| Balance sheet metric | Jun 2026 (IDR) | Jun 2026 (USD, approx.) | Mar 2026 (IDR) | QoQ Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp10,085.67B | ~$564.8M | Rp9,877.25B | +2.11% |
| Total Liabilities | Rp3,856.42B | ~$216.0M | Rp3,393.88B | +13.63% |
| Total Equity | Rp6,229.25B | ~$348.9M | Rp6,483.38B | -3.92% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio» (liabilities ÷ equity) | ~0.62x | - | ~0.52x | New coverage-high |
Debt-to-equity jumped to a fresh high, reversing Q1 2026's brief sequential decline. Total liabilities rose 13.63% quarter-on-quarter, a much larger jump than the 2.11% growth in total assets, while equity fell 3.92% as the AGM cash dividend (Rp415.35 billion paid out over H1 2026, up from Rp300.25 billion in H1 2025) worked its way through retained earnings. This is the same dividend-plus-borrowing combination that drove leverage in Q2 2025, just larger this year - a payout up 38.33% per share landing on a balance sheet that was already still-elevated going into the quarter.
Where Q2 2026's Revenue Went
Net revenue, and how much of it was left as operating profit and net income, in one view. Figures are the same standalone-quarter figures as the metrics table.
Rp trillion, Q2 2026. Operating costs are net revenue less operating income; other items & tax are operating income less net income.
Key Operational Metrics
- Weighted average shares outstanding: 2,502,100,000, unchanged since the IPO.
- AGM cash dividend: Rp166 per share for the year, up 38.33% from 2025's Rp120 - cumulative H1 2026 cash dividends paid of Rp415.35 billion vs. H1 2025's Rp300.25 billion.
- Cumulative H1 2026 net revenue reached Rp2,971.10 billion (vs. Rp2,669.90 billion in H1 2025, +11.28%), and H1 net income attributable to owners was Rp320.56 billion (vs. Rp335.44 billion, -4.44%).
- This quarter's condensed interim filing does not include the same level of footnote detail found in annual filings. This filing's condensed interim disclosures don't include a Roma Purba lawsuit update, a Board of Directors/Commissioners compensation reconciliation, or a per-lender pledged-fleet collateral breakdown - coverage some annual filings provide (all three appeared in the Q1 2026 filing) but this quarter's interim report does not. Worth checking again once a fuller annual filing is available; none of the three are treated here as resolved, unchanged, or newly disclosed.
- Geographic revenue split (Jadetabek vs. outside Jadetabek) is still not disclosed, matching every prior filing.
- Segment-level (Taxi vs. Non-Taxi) revenue and margin figures are not disclosed in this filing's tables and are omitted this quarter rather than estimated.
Stock Price
Blue Bird's stock closed Q2 2026 at Rp1,485 on June 30, 2026, down 9.42% from Q1 2026's Rp1,645 close - a steady slide across the quarter (Rp1,545 in April, Rp1,555 in May, Rp1,485 in June). This closing price matches the low end of the stock's own trailing two-year range (also Rp1,485, set in June 2024), so the stock has round-tripped back to its two-year floor even as the underlying business kept growing revenue. No stock split falls within the two-year price window used here, so all prices in this post are on a nominal, non-adjusted basis.
Target Valuation Range
Enterprise value ~Rp6,213.94B (~$348.0M), implying ~5.63x annualized P/E and ~0.60x P/B, driven mostly by the stock's slide to a two-year low rather than by a change in the business (month-end closes).
Blue Bird's stock closed Q2 2026 at Rp1,485 (2,502,100,000 shares outstanding, unchanged). Annualizing this single quarter's net income by four (a rough sanity check, not a forecast, since Blue Bird's quarters aren't perfectly seasonal):
| Market cap → enterprise value | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp1,485 |
| Shares outstanding | 2,502,100,000 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp3,715.62B (~$208.1M) |
| Total liabilities | ~Rp3,856.42B |
| Less: cash and equivalents | ~Rp1,358.09B |
| Enterprise value | ~Rp6,213.94B (~$348.0M) |
Market cap is down 9.72% from Q1 2026's ~Rp4,115.95B.
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q1 2026 (quarter-annualized) | Q2 2026 (quarter-annualized) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | ~6.63x | ~5.63x (Q2 2026 net income Rp165.07B × 4) |
| P/B | ~0.65x | ~0.60x (book value/share ~Rp2,490) |
| Annualized ROE | ~9.89% | ~10.60% |
| Annualized ROA | ~6.44% | ~6.55% |
The trailing P/E and P/B both fell further this quarter, but for a different reason than Q1 2026's version of the same move - back then, book value was growing while the stock held roughly flat; this quarter, book value actually fell (on the dividend payout) while the stock fell faster still, so the multiples cheapened even as the balance sheet got more leveraged. The dividend, not a change in operating performance, is what drove leverage higher this quarter - the same story told in The Dividend Bill Comes Due Again above, not a new one.
PT Blue Bird Tbk's consolidated financial statements as at June 30, 2026 and for the six-month period then ended, with comparative figures as at and for the six-month period ended June 30, 2025, and (for balance sheet comparatives) as at December 31, 2025. Standalone Q2 2026 and Q2 2025 figures in this post are derived by subtracting each year's already-published Q1 standalone figures from this filing's own six-month cumulative totals.