Taxi's Margin Nearly Doubles, But the Cash Bill Comes Due
Blue Bird's Q1 2025 net revenue rose 16.20% YoY to Rp1,301.71 billion from Rp1,120.25 billion, and net income attributable to owners rose 42.83% to Rp165.40 billion from Q1 2024's Rp115.80 billion - the fastest YoY profit growth this site has tracked for a standalone Q1 since the FY2022 recovery began. The engine behind it is Taxi's operating margin, which nearly doubled to 11.69% from a weak 7.44% a year ago - a bigger single-year Taxi margin swing than either of last year's segment reversals (Q3 2024's compression to 9.06% or Q4 2024's recovery to 11.70%), and now essentially matching Q4 2024's level rather than reversing it.
But the quarter that produced that profit growth also produced the heaviest capex bill this site has recorded for a standalone Q1: Rp520.32 billion, more than double Q1 2024's Rp223.16 billion. Free cash flow swung from a near-breakeven -Rp9.08 billion a year ago to -Rp369.76 billion this quarter, funded partly by a fresh round of bank borrowing that pushed total bank loans up 11.70% sequentially and total cash down 9.59% from December 2024's Rp1,161.95 billion. Despite the stronger earnings, the stock closed the quarter at Rp1,520, down 5.59% from Q4 2024's Rp1,610 close - see Stock Price and Target Valuation Range below for what that combination means for the multiples.
The Prescription
Blue Bird should keep funding the fleet-renewal capex that's driving Taxi's margin recovery - a near-doubling of segment operating margin in one year is exactly the kind of result that capex is supposed to buy, and the filing shows it's working. But it should stop letting its own bilingual filing disagree with itself on basic disclosure figures: this quarter's own report states two different numbers for Board of Directors compensation in the same note - Rp2.71 billion in the Indonesian text, Rp1.88 billion in the English translation of the identical sentence (see Beyond the Usual) - while two of the four lenders' stated December 2024 fleet-collateral comparatives don't match what the FY2024 filing itself already disclosed for those same lenders at the same date. A reader relying on either figure without cross-checking against the prior filing has no way to know which one is right, and that's a basic internal-consistency problem a filing this size shouldn't still have.
Key Financial Metrics
Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024, both reported directly (no derivation needed)
FX: IDR 16,588 = USD 1 (Bank Indonesia middle rate, March 31, 2025, as disclosed in this filing) - the Rupiah weakened further from Q4 2024's Rp16,162 and from Q1 2024's own Rp15,853.
| Metric | Q1 2025 (IDR) | Q1 2025 (USD) | Q1 2024 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | Rp1,301.71B | ~$78.5M | Rp1,120.25B | ✅ +16.20% |
| Adjusted EBITDA» | Rp315.10B | ~$19.0M | Rp251.19B | ✅ +25.44% |
| Operating Income» | Rp168.19B | ~$10.1M | Rp113.45B | ✅ +48.25% |
| Net Income» (attributable to owners) | Rp165.40B | ~$10.0M | Rp115.80B | ✅ +42.83% |
| Free Cash Flow» (Op. CF minus capex) | -Rp369.76B | ~-$22.3M | -Rp9.08B | ⚠️ Widened sharply |
| Total Cash (period-end) | Rp1,050.50B | ~$63.3M | Rp1,099.92B | ⚠️ -4.49% |
| EPS (basic, quarter) | Rp66 | ~$0.0040 | Rp46 | ✅ +43.48% |
The free-cash-flow swing is a capex story, not a weaker operating one. Operating cash flow actually fell to Rp150.56 billion from Rp230.11 billion a year ago - cash payments to suppliers and employees both grew faster than cash receipts from customers - but the bigger driver is capex more than doubling to Rp520.32 billion from Rp223.16 billion. Total cash fell 9.59% sequentially from Q4 2024's Rp1,161.95 billion even though the Group raised Rp271.07 billion in fresh long-term bank loans this quarter (partly offset by Rp111.88 billion of repayments), because the capex bill outran both operating cash flow and the new borrowing combined.
Balance Sheet
| Balance sheet metric | Mar 2025 (IDR) | Mar 2025 (USD) | Dec 2024 (IDR) | QoQ Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp8,745.85B | ~$527.4M | Rp8,440.96B | ✅ +3.61% |
| Total Liabilities | Rp2,583.97B | ~$155.8M | Rp2,445.97B | ⚠️ +5.64% |
| Total Equity | Rp6,161.89B | ~$371.5M | Rp5,994.99B | ✅ +2.78% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio» (total liabilities/equity) | ~0.419x | - | ~0.408x | ⚠️ Higher |
Debt-to-equity ticked up again, to roughly 0.419x from Q4 2024's 0.408x - a smaller move than Q4's own jump from Q3's 0.345x, but a continuation rather than a reversal of that trend. Total bank loans (current and non-current combined) rose to Rp1,519.58 billion from Q4 2024's Rp1,360.40 billion, an 11.70% sequential increase, driven mainly by a new Rp264.82 billion HSBC term loan drawn this quarter. Total equity still grew 2.78% sequentially on retained earnings, but liabilities again grew faster.
Segment Performance
Blue Bird still reports the same two operating segments - Taxi and Non-Taxi - unchanged since Q1 2016's two-segment collapse.
Taxi
Taxi revenue rose 13.66% YoY to Rp911.50 billion from Rp801.92 billion, and operating margin nearly doubled to 11.69% from a weak 7.44% a year ago - the strongest YoY Taxi margin improvement this site has recorded, and now roughly matching Q4 2024's 11.70% rather than the sharp compression Q1 2024 itself flagged. Segment depreciation was roughly flat (Rp82.24 billion vs. Rp83.86 billion a year ago), so the margin gain looks like a genuine operating improvement rather than a depreciation-timing artifact.
Non-Taxi
Non-Taxi revenue rose faster again, up 24.33% YoY to Rp414.24 billion from Rp333.18 billion - still the faster-growing segment - but operating margin eased slightly to 13.68% from 15.31% a year ago. This is a much smaller give-back than Q4 2024's collapse from Q3's coverage-best 21.63% to 13.78%, so Non-Taxi's margin looks like it's stabilizing in the 13-14% range rather than continuing to swing wildly quarter to quarter.
Segment Comparison
| Segment | Revenue (Q1 2025) | YoY Change | Operating Margin (Q1 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taxi | Rp911.50B (68.75%) | ✅ +13.66% | ✅ 11.69% (Q1 2025); 7.44% (Q1 2024) |
| Non-Taxi | Rp414.24B (31.25%) | ✅ +24.33% | ⚠️ 13.68% (Q1 2025); 15.31% (Q1 2024) |
Non-Taxi's share of combined segment revenue crept back up to 31.25% from Q4 2024's 29.70%, a partial reversal of Q4's swing back toward Taxi - though still well short of Q3 2024's 33.68% high. Read together, this quarter looks like the healthiest of the last four for Blue Bird's overall segment mix: both segments grew revenue YoY, and the one segment with a real margin problem a year ago (Taxi) is the one that fixed it, while the segment that already had industry-leading margins (Non-Taxi) gave back only a modest amount rather than collapsing.
Key Operational Metrics
- Weighted average shares outstanding: 2,502,100,000, unchanged since the IPO.
- Permanent headcount rose to 3,229 employees, up 4.60% YoY from March 2024's 3,087 and up 2.54% sequentially from Q4 2024's 3,149 - a resumption of headcount growth after Q4 2024's seasonal pullback.
- Board of Commissioners compensation: Rp1.74 billion (Company-level, cash), up from Rp1.31 billion a year ago. Board of Directors compensation: the filing itself states two different figures for the same period - see Beyond the Usual below.
- Total bank loans (current and non-current combined): Rp1,519.58 billion, up from Q4 2024's Rp1,360.40 billion - see Balance Sheet above.
- Geographic revenue split (Jadetabek vs. outside Jadetabek) is still not disclosed, matching every prior filing.
- Still not available: any Gojek/GoPay integration volume or revenue metric; the Grab Car Plus integration signed in October 2024 also has no disclosed volume or revenue figure yet, one full quarter after signing.
Stock Price
Blue Bird's stock closed Q1 2025 at Rp1,520 on March 27, 2025, down 5.59% from Q4 2024's Rp1,610 close - a smaller decline than Q4's own 17.86% drop, but a fourth straight quarter without a rally. Over the trailing two years the stock ranged from a low of Rp1,485 (June 2024) to a high of Rp2,250 (July 2023), so this quarter's close sits in the lower third of that range, and the stock has now round-tripped from a two-year high to near a two-year low even as net income attributable to owners has grown in three of the last four quarters. No stock split has occurred for Blue Bird since its 2014 IPO, so all prices in this post are on a nominal, non-adjusted basis.
Beyond the Usual
This quarter's own bilingual filing states two different figures for the same Board of Directors compensation number
The filing's Note 1c reports Q1 2025 compensation paid to the Company's Board of Directors as "Rp2.707" (billion, in the Indonesian-language text) in one sentence and "Rp1,877" (million, i.e. Rp1.877 billion, in the immediately following English translation of the same sentence) - a real discrepancy, not a rounding difference, since the two figures aren't close. The prior-year comparative figure (Rp1.738 billion) matches in both languages, so the mismatch is isolated to this quarter's own number. A separate note (Note 24, covering Group-wide key-management compensation across both the Board of Commissioners and Directors together) reports Rp12.80 billion for the quarter, a different and non-comparable figure since it covers a broader scope - it doesn't resolve which of the two Note 1c figures is correct.
Two of four lenders' stated December 2024 fleet-collateral figures don't match what last quarter's own filing already disclosed
This quarter's collateral note states OCBC's pledged fleet count at December 31, 2024 as 1,190 units and PERMATA's as 124 units. But the FY2024 filing itself, covered here last quarter, reported OCBC at 1,074 units and PERMATA at 2,361 units for that same December 31, 2024 date - the opposite pattern for PERMATA (2,361 book than 124) and a smaller mismatch for OCBC. The other two lenders' comparatives, HSBC (1,979 units) and SMBC (210 units), do match the FY2024 filing exactly. Since half the comparative figures check out and half don't, this reads as a data-carryover error in two of the four lender entries in this quarter's note rather than a systematic issue - but it means the December 2024 comparative column in this specific note shouldn't be relied on for OCBC or PERMATA without checking back against the FY2024 filing directly, which is what this post did.
The March 2025 fleet-collateral pool itself shows HSBC's exposure nearly doubling in three months
Taking this quarter's own March 31, 2025 figures (which aren't subject to the comparative-column issue above), HSBC's pledged fleet collateral rose to 3,300 units from Q4 2024's 1,979 units - continuing the build this site has tracked since HSBC first appeared as a lender, and now clearly the largest single pledge among the four banks. PERMATA's own March 2025 figure (2,361 units) is unchanged from what the FY2024 filing disclosed for December 2024, meaning PERMATA's actual collateral count appears flat quarter over quarter despite what this quarter's own (likely erroneous) comparative column implies.
No litigation matter is disclosed in this filing for the first time in several quarters
The shareholder-rights suit this site tracked from its Q4 2023 Supreme Court Judicial Review status through its August 2024 final resolution in the Company's favor does not reappear in this quarter's commitments-and-contingencies note, and no new litigation matter is disclosed in its place. This is the first quarter in this site's coverage where the note contains no litigation item at all.
Target Valuation Range
Enterprise value ~Rp5,337B (~$321.8M), implying ~5.75x annualized P/E and ~0.629x P/B - modestly undervalued. Net income attributable to owners grew 42.83% YoY while the stock fell over the same quarter, pushing the (quarter-annualized) trailing P/E down to roughly 5.75x, cheaper than where the multiple stood entering the year.
Blue Bird's stock closed Q1 2025 at Rp1,520 on March 27, 2025 (2,502,100,000 shares outstanding, unchanged). Annualizing this single quarter's net income by four (a rough sanity check, not a forecast, since Blue Bird's quarters aren't perfectly seasonal):
| Market cap → enterprise value | Q1 2025 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp1,520 |
| Shares outstanding | 2,502,100,000 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp3,803.19B (~$229.3M) |
| Total liabilities | ~Rp2,583.97B |
| Less: cash and equivalents | ~Rp1,050.50B |
| Enterprise value | ~Rp5,336.66B (~$321.8M) |
Market cap is down 5.59% from ~Rp4,028.38B at Q4 2024's close.
| Peer-multiple sanity check | FY2024 (actual) | Q1 2025 (quarter-annualized) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | ~6.88x | ~5.75x (Q1 2025 net income Rp165.40B × 4) - Q1 is typically Blue Bird's seasonally softer quarter |
| P/B | ~0.685x | ~0.629x (book value/share ~Rp2,416) |
| ROE | ~10.27% | ~11.09% (annualized) |
| ROA | ~7.40% | ~7.70% (annualized) |
Every multiple got cheaper this quarter even as the underlying earnings grew faster than at any point since the FY2022 recovery, extending a pattern this site flagged as far back as Q4 2024: Blue Bird's stock and its earnings have been moving in opposite directions for two straight quarters now. The free-cash-flow swing and the rising debt-to-equity ratio (see Key Financial Metrics and Balance Sheet above) are plausible reasons the market isn't rewarding the profit growth - a reader should weight this quarter's capex-driven cash drain against the margin improvement rather than reading either number in isolation.
PT Blue Bird Tbk's consolidated financial statements as at March 31, 2025 and for the three-month period then ended, with comparative figures as at and for the three-month period ended March 31, 2024, and (for balance sheet comparatives) as at December 31, 2024.