The Profit Slide Finally Breaks, But the Market Doesn't Notice
Q2 2024 standalone net revenue rose 8.15% YoY to Rp1,207.45 billion from Rp1,045.99 billion (derived by subtracting Q1 2024's already-reported figures from this filing's six-month cumulative total). Unlike the prior three quarters, the profit lines followed this time: operating income rose 4.92% YoY to Rp157.76 billion and net income attributable to owners rose 8.11% to Rp147.21 billion - the first quarter since Q2 2023 where revenue, operating income, and net income all moved in the same direction. That ends the run flagged across Q3 2023, Q4 2023, and Q1 2024 itself.
The trademark license fee this site has tracked since its July 2023 trigger date kept climbing - Rp21.51 billion this quarter, up from Q1's Rp20.44 billion (see Beyond the Usual) - but this time revenue growth (+8.15% YoY) simply outran the added cost rather than being absorbed by it, the way it was in the three prior quarters. Yet the stock fell 15.14% over the same quarter (see Target Valuation Range), the sharpest single-quarter price move this site has recorded for Blue Bird since Q1 2020's pre-pandemic collapse - a genuine disconnect between a quarter that actually turned the profit trend around and a market that didn't reward it.
The Prescription
Blue Bird should keep leaning into what actually turned this quarter around: Non-Taxi's margin recovery and Taxi's return to double-digit growth together did more to offset the trademark fee than any cost-cutting could have - the fix for a structural new expense is revenue growth that outpaces it, not trying to claw the expense back, and this quarter is the proof that's achievable. What it should stop doing: letting the AGM's cash-dividend increase (see Beyond the Usual) go unexplained relative to the quarter's actual cash position - a reader has no way to tell from the filing whether the 26.4% per-share increase reflects genuine confidence in free cash flow generation or simply tracks the prior year's already-strong net income without a clear payout-ratio policy stated anywhere in the disclosure.
Key Financial Metrics
Q2 2024 vs. Q2 2023, both standalone quarters derived by subtracting Q1 from the six-month cumulative filing
FX: IDR 16,421 = USD 1 (Bank Indonesia middle rate, June 30, 2024, as disclosed in this filing) - the Rupiah weakened further from Q1 2024's Rp15,853.
| Metric | Q2 2024 (IDR) | Q2 2024 (USD) | Q2 2023 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | Rp1,207.45B | ~$73.5M | Rp1,045.99B | ✅ +8.15% |
| Adjusted EBITDA» | Rp294.43B | ~$17.9M | Rp283.78B | ✅ +3.75% |
| Operating Income» | Rp157.76B | ~$9.6M | Rp150.36B | ✅ +4.92% |
| Net Income» (attributable to owners) | Rp147.21B | ~$9.0M | Rp136.19B | ✅ +8.11% |
| Free Cash Flow» (Op. CF minus capex) | Rp28.04B | ~$1.7M | -Rp43.91B | ✅ Swung positive |
| Total Cash (period-end) | Rp1,169.02B | ~$71.2M | Rp941.50B | ✅ +24.17% |
| EPS (basic, quarter) | ~Rp59 | ~$0.0036 | ~Rp54 | ✅ +9.26% |
This is the first quarter since Q2 2023 where every line moved the same direction YoY, and free cash flow's swing is the clearest sign of it: Q2 2024 turned solidly positive (Rp28.04 billion) after four of the last five quarters ran negative, as capex eased further from Q1's already-improved pace (H1 2024 capex of Rp395.77 billion vs H1 2023's Rp676.29 billion, a 41.5% cut) while operating cash flow held up. Sequentially, revenue rose 7.77% from Q1 2024's Rp1,120.25 billion, and operating income rose 39.06% QoQ - a much cleaner sequential recovery than Q1's own mixed QoQ picture. Total cash rose 6.28% sequentially from Q1 2024's Rp1,099.92 billion, though - as flagged every quarter since Q1 2024 - most of it remains pledged as bank-loan collateral (see Beyond the Usual).
Balance Sheet
| Balance sheet metric | Jun 2024 (IDR) | Jun 2024 (USD) | Mar 2024 (IDR) | QoQ Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp7,774.48B | ~$473.4M | Rp7,724.40B | ✅ +0.65% |
| Total Liabilities | Rp2,108.68B | ~$128.4M | Rp1,975.68B | ⚠️ +6.73% |
| Total Equity | Rp5,665.80B | ~$345.0M | Rp5,748.73B | ⚠️ -1.44% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio» (per filing, total liabilities/equity) | ~0.37x | - | 0.34x | ⚠️ Higher |
Total equity fell sequentially for the first time this site has tracked in FY2024, not on operating weakness but almost entirely on the Rp227.69 billion cash dividend declared this quarter (see Beyond the Usual), which was recorded as a Rp229.44 billion dividend payable liability rather than yet being paid out - the same mechanic that pushed total liabilities up 6.73% QoQ despite total bank loans actually falling. Total bank loans (current and non-current combined) fell to Rp970.33 billion from Q1 2024's Rp1,028.42 billion, a 5.65% sequential decline - the borrowing pause Q1 flagged has turned into an actual reduction. This filing doesn't itself disclose a debt-to-equity ratio the way some prior quarters' filings did; dividing total liabilities by total equity works out to roughly 0.372x, up from Q1's clean 0.34x - but that increase is a dividend-payable timing effect on the equity side, not new leverage, since bank debt itself declined over the same period.
Segment Performance
Blue Bird still reports the same two operating segments - Taxi and Non-Taxi - unchanged since Q1 2016's two-segment collapse.
Taxi
Q2 2024 standalone net revenue was Rp874.61 billion, up 8.62% YoY from Q2 2023's Rp805.19 billion (derived the same way as the consolidated total, by differencing this filing's six-month cumulative from Q1 2024's already-reported figure), with an operating margin of 11.29% (Rp98.68 billion operating income) - a real recovery from Q1 2024's 8.75% and the first time since Q4 2023 that Taxi's margin has moved back into double digits.
Non-Taxi
Q2 2024 standalone net revenue was Rp348.36 billion, up 13.36% YoY - still the faster-growing segment, extending the gap over Taxi that this site has tracked since the mix shift began - with operating margin at 15.60% (Rp54.35 billion operating income), up from Q1 2024's 12.45% and back above the 15% level last seen in FY2023.
Segment Comparison
| Segment | Revenue (Q2 2024) | YoY Growth | Operating Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taxi | Rp874.61B (71.51%) | ✅ +8.62% | ✅ 11.29% (Q2 2024); 8.75% (Q1 2024) |
| Non-Taxi | Rp348.36B (28.49%) | ✅ +13.36% | ✅ 15.60% (Q2 2024); 12.45% (Q1 2024) |
Both segments' margins recovered sequentially in the same quarter for the first time since Q2 2022's dual coverage-best run, reversing the compression both had shown across Q3 2023 through Q1 2024. Taxi's share of the two segments' combined revenue held essentially flat at 71.51%, versus Q1 2024's 72.93% - the multi-year mix shift toward Non-Taxi continued, but only marginally this quarter.
Key Operational Metrics
- Weighted average shares outstanding: 2,502,100,000, unchanged since the IPO.
- Permanent headcount rose to 3,146 employees, up 1.91% sequentially from Q1 2024's 3,087, though still down 1.13% YoY from Q2 2023's 3,182 - the recovery that resumed in Q1 continued, without yet closing the year-ago gap.
- Board of Commissioners compensation (quarter, standalone): Rp2.34 billion, down 9.23% from Q2 2023's Rp2.58 billion. Board of Directors compensation (quarter, standalone): Rp8.48 billion, down 3.31% from Q2 2023's Rp8.77 billion - both modestly lower even as the same AGM declared a larger dividend, a contrast with Q2 2022's AGM quarter, where board compensation spiked 216%/844% alongside a dividend declaration.
- Total bank loans (current and non-current combined): Rp970.33 billion, down from Q1 2024's Rp1,028.42 billion - see Balance Sheet above.
- Geographic revenue split (Jadetabek vs. outside Jadetabek) is still not disclosed, matching every prior filing.
- Still not available: any Gojek/GoPay integration volume or revenue metric, matching every filing since Q1 2020's first disclosure.
Beyond the Usual
An AGM raised the cash dividend per share 26.4% from last year's mid-year payout
Based on Notarial Deed No. 64 dated June 13, 2024, Blue Bird's shareholders approved a cash dividend of Rp227.69 billion, or Rp91 per share, to shareholders of record as of June 27, 2024. This follows the same mid-year AGM pattern this site has tracked in 2022 (Rp150.13 billion, first dividend after the 2020-21 pandemic suspension) and 2023 (Rp180.15 billion, Rp72 per share) - each year's mid-year dividend has been larger than the one before it, and this year's per-share amount is up 26.4% from last year's Rp72. The Company recorded the approved-but-unpaid amount as a Rp229.44 billion dividend payable, which is why total equity fell sequentially this quarter despite positive net income (see Balance Sheet).
The trademark license fee kept climbing past its stated 2% rate
This filing's operating-expense footnote shows the related-party trademark license fee at Rp41.95 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, against nil in the same period last year. Subtracting Q1 2024's already-disclosed Rp20.44 billion, Q2 2024's standalone fee comes to Rp21.51 billion - a 5.2% sequential increase over Q1, and modestly above the roughly Rp20.4 billion this site's Q1 2024 post estimated as the theoretical quarterly run-rate at exactly 2% of net revenue. The fee is now tracking net revenue growth rather than staying flat, which is what a genuine percentage-of-revenue royalty should do - not concerning on its own, but worth watching whether it keeps scaling with revenue or starts running ahead of it.
A shareholder-rights lawsuit remains under Supreme Court review, with no new decision this quarter
Q1 2024's post reported that the Elliana Wibowo shareholder-rights lawsuit - dismissed in the Company's favor at the South Jakarta District Court in May 2023, then taken to the Supreme Court of the Republic of Indonesia via a Judicial Review request filed by the plaintiff in November 2023 - was still awaiting a decision. This filing repeats the identical status: as of the date of authorization of these consolidated financial statements, the Supreme Court had still not issued a decision. No new development for a second straight quarter.
The share of cash pledged as bank-loan collateral rose again, and two new lenders joined the pledge pool
Every short-term time deposit on Blue Bird's balance sheet is disclosed as collateral for its bank credit facilities (Note 4). At June 30, 2024, that includes Rp475.73 billion at OCBC, Rp183.40 billion at BTPN, Rp99.90 billion at Permata, Rp50.00 billion at HSBC, and - new this quarter - Rp185.00 billion at Maybank Indonesia and Rp16.00 billion at Danamon Indonesia, plus a USD-denominated OCBC deposit worth Rp16.42 billion: a combined Rp1,026.45 billion, or roughly 88% of the Rp1,169.02 billion total cash balance, up from Q1 2024's roughly 76%. Standard practice for asset-backed lending, but it means an even smaller share of this quarter's cash growth is genuinely discretionary than last quarter - only around Rp142.6 billion of the Rp1,169.02 billion total looks freely available.
HSBC's fleet-collateral count plateaued after tripling the quarter before
Q1 2024 flagged HSBC's pledged fleet count jumping from 423 units at year-end 2023 to 1,438 units by March 2024. This filing shows the same 1,438 units as of June 30, 2024 - no further change this quarter. OCBC (1,153 units) and BTPN (1,447 units) also show no change in their pledged fleet counts from March to June. HSBC's own loan balance did keep growing, though more slowly than Q1's near-tripling: from Rp248.48 billion at March 2024 to Rp281.51 billion at June 2024, a 13.3% sequential increase, while BTPN's balance kept shrinking (Rp174.52 billion to Rp123.38 billion, down 29.3%) - the same lender-substitution pattern flagged last quarter, just decelerating.
Target Valuation Range
Enterprise value ~Rp4,655B (~$283.5M), implying ~6.31x annualized P/E and ~0.67x P/B - undervalued relative to its own fundamentals this quarter. The stock fell sharply even as profit growth resumed and every return-on-capital metric improved, the widest fundamentals/price disconnect this site has recorded for Blue Bird since the FY2022 recovery began.
Blue Bird's stock closed Q2 2024 at Rp1,485 on June 28, 2024 (the last trading day of the quarter), down 15.14% from Q1 2024's Rp1,750 close - the sharpest single-quarter decline this site has recorded for Blue Bird since Q1 2020's 61.24% collapse at the start of the pandemic, though nowhere near as severe in magnitude. Over the trailing two years, the stock ranged from a low near Rp1,355 (September 2022) to a high near Rp2,250 (July 2023) before this quarter's slide - a genuinely large enough swing to warrant a dedicated look, not just a fold-in line.
Against the June 28, 2024 closing price of Rp1,485 (2,502,100,000 shares outstanding, unchanged), annualizing Q2 2024's standalone results (×4, the same convention this site has used for standalone quarters without a trailing-twelve-month figure):
| Market cap → enterprise value | Q2 2024 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp1,485 |
| Shares outstanding | 2,502,100,000 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp3,715.62B (~$226.3M) |
| Total liabilities | ~Rp2,108.68B |
| Less: cash and equivalents | ~Rp1,169.02B |
| Enterprise value | ~Rp4,655.28B (~$283.5M) |
Market cap is down 15.14% from ~Rp4,378.68B at Q1 2024's close.
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q1 2024 (annualized) | Q2 2024 (annualized) |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | ~9.51x | ~6.31x (annualized net income ~Rp588.83B) |
| P/B | ~0.78x | ~0.67x (book value/share ~Rp2,221) |
| Annualized ROE | ~8.30% | ~10.52% |
| Annualized ROA | ~6.13% | ~7.70% |
Every multiple got cheaper this quarter while every return-on-capital metric improved - the opposite of what happened in Q1 2019, where the stock rallied even as returns fell. If the profit recovery flagged in Key Financial Metrics holds into Q3, this quarter's price move looks more like sentiment (or reaction to the sequential equity decline from the dividend accrual, see Balance Sheet) than a reassessment of the underlying business.
PT Blue Bird Tbk's consolidated financial statements as at June 30, 2024 and for the six-month period then ended, with comparative figures as at June 30, 2023.