Revenue Kept Falling for a Second Straight Quarter, But Profit Could No Longer Outrun It
Over these 12 quarters: share price Rp6,050 to Rp4,010 (-34%); profit before tax 21.5 to 18.8 Rp trillion; profit before tax margin 87.4% to 84.7%. One graph in actual numbers: bars are the quarter's profit before tax, over them the share price at quarter-end (left axis) and the profit before tax margin (right axis); each line is fitted to its own range, so read the timing, not the heights. Prices are adjusted for splits.
Bank Mandiri's net income grew just 13.91% year-on-year this quarter, less than half last quarter's attention-grabbing 33.48%, even as the capital ratio that crashed in Q2 bounced back and a pending asset sale flagged last quarter actually closed. The H1 2026 post showed Q2 2026 as the first quarter where PT Bank Syariah Indonesia's February 2026 deconsolidation distorted the year-over-year comparison for all three months on both sides, with revenue falling double digits while profit jumped on a shrunken base. Q3 2026 is the second such quarter: net revenue fell a further 15.02% year-on-year standalone, worse than Q2, but net income grew only 13.91% - a far thinner cushion than Q2's equally distorted comparison provided.
Net Income Growth More Than Halved From Q2's Pace, Even Against an Equally Distorted Base
Isolating Q3 2026 standalone (9M 2026 less the already-reported H1 2026) puts net income attributable to owners at Rp15,121,682 million, up 13.91% year-on-year from Q3 2025's Rp13,275,060 million - a sharp deceleration from Q2 2026 standalone's +33.48% (per the H1 2026 post), even though Q3 2025's comparison base still had BSI fully consolidated, the same kind of distortion that flattered Q2's number. Operating income (profit before tax) tells a milder version of the same story: Q3 2026 standalone profit before tax of Rp18,791,453 million grew only 4.26% year-on-year, against Q2 2026 standalone's +24.9% (H1 2026 post). Cumulatively for 9M 2026, net income attributable to owners rose a real 20.69% year-on-year to Rp45,534,001 million (from Rp37,730,142 million) - essentially matching external reporting of Bank Mandiri's own stated ~20.7% growth for the nine months - but the cumulative figure is carrying H1's outsized Q2 gain more than it reflects Q3's own, more modest, quarter.
The Bank-Only and Consolidated Capital Ratios That Crashed in Q2 Both Recovered This Quarter
Bank-only capital adequacy (CAR) rose from June's 17.52% to September's 18.39%, and consolidated CAR rose from June's 17.88% to September's 18.73% - recovering roughly 40% of the bank-only drop (0.87 of the 2.17-point fall from March to June) and roughly a third of the consolidated drop (0.85 of the 2.55-point fall from December to June) that the H1 2026 post had flagged as a repeating pattern (Q1 2025's crash from 20.10% to 17.29% was the only prior move of similar size). The recovery happened with no further dividend paid in Q3 - the cash-flow statement shows the entire Rp44,472,220 million half-year dividend was paid in H1 and nothing further this quarter, so the rebound reflects retained Q3 earnings adding back to capital rather than a lighter payout. Both ratios remain comfortably above the bank's own filed minimum CAR based on risk profile (9.78% bank-only, 9.80% consolidated this quarter), so this was never a solvency concern, but it is the first quarter since Q2's crash that capital moved the encouraging direction rather than the alarming one - Q1 2026's own CAR had also improved, before Q2's drop.
The Mandiri Sekuritas Asset-Management Sale to Danantara, Pending Last Quarter, Has Now Closed
The balance-sheet lines for assets and liabilities held for sale, which carried PT Mandiri Manajemen Investasi (MMI) at Rp346,221 million of assets and nothing offsetting in liabilities as of June 30, 2026, are both zero at September 30, 2026, and the cash-flow statement shows a new "Pengalihan pengendalian atas Entitas Cucu" (transfer of control over a grandchild entity) line of Rp1,024,317 million in the investing-activities section this quarter - the exact amount the H1 2026 post reported as the Conditional Share Purchase Agreement price for transferring 99.93% of MMI to PT Danantara Asset Management (DAM). The unconditional agreement that H1's post noted was signed July 22, 2026 (as a subsequent event) has evidently closed within the quarter. It is the second state-owned financial asset Bank Mandiri has moved to Danantara rather than to the market, after BSI itself.
The Prescription
Bank Mandiri's own FY26 guidance language says the right thing - "loan growth follows deposit growth, keeping LDR below 95%" - but the bank just raised its full-year loan-growth guidance range to 9-11% (from 7-9%) in the same quarter that bank-only cost of funds rose 30 basis points to 2.34%, driven by higher time-deposit costs, and bank-only loan yields only started recovering (+12 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 7.03%) after several quarters of decline. The bank should hold the line on the wider loan-growth target until CASA growth, not time deposits, is doing more of the funding - chasing the higher guidance number with expensive deposits is exactly what pushed this quarter's funding cost up, and a bank whose NIM only just stopped compressing cannot afford to re-open that gap by over-promising growth it then has to fund expensively.
What it should stop doing: disclosing a segment profitability note only when convenient. Bank Mandiri has again filed no segment-level net income disclosure this quarter, even though both Q1 2026 and the H1 2026 interim filing carried one - the fourth period since FY2025 without a segment note (after Q2 2025, Q3 2025 and FY2025 itself), but the first time the note has disappeared again right after two quarters of returning. This leaves no way to check whether this quarter's operating income growth is coming from the lending businesses actually getting better, or from the Head Office corporate-center loss simply not widening as much as usual, a pattern those two posts have repeatedly flagged. A bank whose segment presentation comes and goes right when a reader wants to isolate organic performance from a deconsolidation shock is withholding exactly the disclosure that would let a reader trust the headline number.
Key Financial Metrics
Rp trillion; margin is profit before tax as a percent of net revenue, per quarter. Values are standalone quarters; 9 derived from annual, half-year or nine-month figures (Q4 2023, Q2 2024, Q3 2024, Q4 2024, Q2 2025, Q3 2025, Q4 2025, Q2 2026, Q3 2026).
9M 2026 vs 9M 2025 (P&L, consolidated), plus Q3 2026 standalone vs Q3 2025 standalone (9M less H1) - both comparisons have BSI in last year's column but not this year's; see the opening section above before reading either as a pure organic trend
FX: IDR 17,875.00 = USD 1 (September 30, 2026 close, per the bank's own filed exchange-rate disclosure); IDR 16,665.00 = USD 1 (September 30, 2025 close, per the same disclosure) - the Rupiah weakened a further 7.3% over the twelve months between the two dates.
| Metric | 9M 2026 (IDR) | 9M 2026 (USD) | 9M 2025 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest, sharia & insurance income ("Net Revenue" equivalent) | Rp70,521,925M | ~$3.95B | Rp78,558,875M | -10.2% |
| Operating Income (Profit before tax) | Rp57,832,621M | ~$3.24B | Rp51,547,203M | +12.2% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp45,534,001M | ~$2.55B | Rp37,730,142M | +20.7% |
| EPS (nine-month) | Rp488.13 | ~$0.027 | Rp404.25 | +20.8% |
| Metric (Q3 standalone = 9M less H1) | Q3 2026 (IDR) | Q3 2025 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest, sharia & insurance income | Rp22,191,435M | Rp26,114,219M | -15.0% |
| Operating Income (Profit before tax) | Rp18,791,453M | Rp18,023,830M | +4.3% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp15,121,682M | Rp13,275,060M | +13.9% |
Operating cash flow was -Rp95,498,864 million for the nine months (from 9M 2025's +Rp110,035,007 million), against fixed- and intangible-asset capex of Rp2,760,039 million, for free cash flow of approximately -Rp98,258,903 million. Isolating Q3 2026 standalone (9M less H1's already-reported -Rp103,052,329 million operating cash flow and -Rp104,580,458 million FCF) puts the quarter's own operating cash flow at roughly +Rp7,553,465 million and FCF at roughly +Rp6,321,555 million - the first positive standalone quarter since Q1 2026, when the BSI deconsolidation's one-off cash effect (-Rp36,368,200 million, per the H1 2026 post) first distorted the statement. Total cash and cash equivalents at period-end is Rp253,531,508 million (~$14.18B), down 4.04% from June 30, 2026's Rp264,212,231 million, but up 5.69% from September 30, 2025's Rp239,878,795 million.
| Balance sheet metric | Sep 30, 2026 (IDR) | Sep 30, 2026 (USD) | Sep 30, 2025 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp2,588,298,318M | ~$144.81B | Rp2,563,360,149M | +1.0% |
| Loans (gross, consolidated) | Rp1,645,272,499M | ~$92.02B | Rp1,720,252,673M | -4.4% |
| Total Deposits (customer, consolidated) | Rp1,804,610,083M | ~$100.96B | Rp1,884,189,346M | -4.2% |
| Total Equity (attributable to owners) | Rp294,041,482M | ~$16.45B | Rp281,631,008M | +4.4% |
Total assets grew only marginally YoY (+1.0%) even with BSI gone from the group for the comparison's second quarter, while loans and deposits both fell about 4% YoY - a milder decline than the headline revenue drop, since loans and deposits are stock measures carried at balance-sheet value rather than the income-statement flows that BSI's departure hits directly. Equity grew a real 4.4% YoY as retained earnings accumulated faster than the dividend paid out.
Where Q3 2026's Revenue Went
Net revenue, and how much of it was left as operating profit and net income, in one view. Figures are the same standalone-quarter figures as the metrics table.
Rp trillion, Q3 2026. Operating costs are net revenue less profit before tax; tax & other items are profit before tax less net income. Standalone quarter; all three figures derived from an annual, half-year or nine-month row.
Key Operational Metrics
Bank-only (Individual/parent-entity) ratios, filed in the bank's September 30, 2026 published financial statements (OJK format) - the bank-only entity never consolidated BSI in the first place, so these ratios are unaffected by the deconsolidation.
Arrow = the way the number moved against a year earlier. Green = good for the bank, red = bad, grey = neither or flat.
Funding quality
- CASA» ratio - bank-only, computed: 71.89% (Rp1,258,167,858M demand + saving deposits ÷ Rp1,750,186,353M total deposits), up from June 2026's 70.49% (the decline the H1 2026 post flagged) and from December 2025's 70.83%, though still below March 2026's 71.71% - a genuine zigzag over the last four quarters (70.83% → 71.71% → 70.49% → 71.89%) rather than a clean trend in either direction. Against a year earlier, the bank's own investor presentation states bank-only CASA at 73.1% for September 2025, so on that basis the ratio actually fell, by roughly 1.2 percentage points, even as it climbed back over the four 2026 quarters shown.
- Loan-to-Deposit Ratio» (LDR) - bank-only, filed: 91.20%, down from June 2026's 92.73% (which had climbed for three straight quarters) and from September 2025's 92.55%.
- Net Open Position (NOP) - overall: 2.48%, up from 1.16% a year earlier - still comfortably within the regulatory ceiling.
Capital and credit quality
- CAR» (capital adequacy) - bank-only, filed: 18.39%, up from June 2026's 17.52% and down from September 2025's 19.04%. Consolidated CAR: 18.73%, up from June 2026's 17.88% and down from September 2025's 20.07%. See the opening section above.
- NPL» ratio - gross, filed: 0.98%, improved from 1.03% a year earlier. Net NPL: 0.38%, essentially flat YoY (0.40%).
- NPL Coverage - bank-only, per the investor presentation (not a line in the filed OJK ratios): 243%, down from 271% a year earlier - loan-loss reserves held against non-performing loans fell as a share of those loans even as the NPL ratio itself improved, because the NPL balance it covers also shrank. See Beyond the Usual.
Profitability
- ROE», filed: 23.62%, up from 21.24% a year earlier.
- ROA, filed: 2.99%, up from 2.93% a year earlier.
- NIM», filed: 4.21%, down from 4.59% a year earlier - continuing the multi-year margin compression since 2024, though bank-only loan yield itself improved 12 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 7.03% in Q3, the first such improvement in several quarters per the bank's own investor presentation.
- Cost-to-Income Ratio» (CIR), filed: 36.08%, improved from 43.05% a year earlier. See Beyond the Usual for a caveat on how differently the bank's own investor deck computes ROA, ROE and CIR for the same period.
Not available this quarter: a segment profitability note, a results-presentation transcript, or a press release - none were located as of this post; only the OJK-format published financial statements and the bank's own "3Q26 Analyst Meeting" investor presentation.
Beyond the Usual
The bank's own investor deck reports a materially lower return on assets and equity than its filed regulatory ratios for the same period
The filed OJK-format ratio table states bank-only ROA of 2.99% and ROE of 23.62% for the nine months ended September 30, 2026 (up from 2.93% and 21.24% a year earlier). The bank's own "3Q26 Analyst Meeting" investor presentation, covering the identical nine-month period and the identical bank-only entity, states ROA (after tax) of 2.42% and ROE (after tax, excluding minority interest) of 21.6% for 9M 2026 (up from 2.39% and 19.0% a year earlier) - a gap of roughly 0.57 percentage points on ROA and 2.0 percentage points on ROE between the two documents, both filed or published by Bank Mandiri itself for the same period and the same entity. The deck states its own ROE formula explicitly ("PATMI / YTD average monthly equity excluding minority interest"), a different denominator (an average of monthly equity balances) than a filed ratio likely computed against period-end or differently-annualized figures - the filed statement does not disclose its own formula. Net interest margin and cost-to-income ratio, by contrast, are within a few basis points of each other across the two documents (NIM 4.21% filed vs. 4.19% per the deck; CIR 36.08% filed vs. 36.1% per the deck) - so the gap is specific to how the two documents compute returns on assets and equity, not a wholesale inconsistency between them.
A bank-only loan-loss coverage ratio fell even as the underlying NPL ratio improved
Bank-only NPL coverage (loan-loss reserves as a share of non-performing loans, per the bank's own investor presentation) fell from 271% a year earlier to 243% this quarter, even as the gross NPL ratio itself improved from 1.03% to 0.98% over the same period. A falling coverage ratio alongside an improving NPL ratio is not necessarily a red flag - it can simply mean the NPL balance the reserves need to cover shrank, so even unchanged reserves would show as higher coverage, not lower - but it means the margin of safety against a renewed rise in bad loans is thinner than it was a year ago, at a quarter when the bank is also raising its loan-growth guidance for the rest of the year.
Related-party lending at the bank-only level fell back after three straight rising quarters
The H1 2026 post flagged total assets with related parties reaching a new high of 29.23% of consolidated assets at June 2026 and growing concentration in state food-security lending. That finding was at the total-assets level, using the full interim consolidated financial statements' related-party note - a document not located for this quarter, so the 29.23% figure cannot be updated here. A narrower, bank-only measure is available from the investor presentation instead: bank-only loans to related parties rose from Rp388 trillion (December 2025, 25.9% of bank-only loans) to Rp414 trillion (March 2026, 27.1%) to Rp437 trillion (June 2026, 27.5%), then fell back to Rp419 trillion (September 2026, 26.1%) - the first quarterly decline in this narrower series after three straight increases. Whether the broader total-assets measure moved the same direction this quarter is an open question this post cannot answer without the fuller related-party note.
Promotion expense kept falling sharply, continuing a pattern tracked since 9M 2025
Consolidated promotion expense fell 73.35% year-on-year for the nine months, from Rp3,426,780 million to Rp913,263 million - an even sharper decline than the 9M 2025 post's finding that promotion expense had already reversed from its earlier surge. Consolidated impairment charges on financial assets also fell, by 7.64% year-on-year (Rp9,171,759 million to Rp8,471,171 million), continuing the cost-discipline reversal the FY2025 post first flagged, though consolidated labor expense fell an even larger 16.88% year-on-year (Rp20,203,349 million to Rp16,794,206 million) - a decline this size is plausibly driven in large part by BSI's own headcount leaving the consolidated group rather than a comparable efficiency gain at the core bank, since the bank-only labor-expense decline over the same period was a much milder 3.25% (Rp13,700,524 million to Rp13,255,368 million).
Coverage at a Glance
| Metric | 9M 2026 | 9M 2025 | YoY | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income (attributable to owners) | Rp45.53T | Rp37.73T | +20.7% | Real growth cumulatively, but Q3-standalone growth (+13.9%) more than halved from Q2-standalone's +33.5% |
| Net interest, sharia & insurance income | Rp70.52T | Rp78.56T | -10.2% | Q3-standalone fell 15.0% YoY, the second straight quarter where BSI's absence is felt for all three months |
| Bank-only CAR | 18.39% | 19.04% | -0.65pp | Recovered 0.87pp from June's 17.52% after H1's sharp drop |
| Bank-only CASA | 71.89% | 73.1% | -1.21pp | Fell YoY per the investor presentation, despite the QoQ zigzag recovery from June's 70.49% |
| Bank-only LDR | 91.20% | 92.55% | -1.35pp | Eased after three straight quarters of climbing |
| NPL coverage (bank-only, per the deck) | 243% | 271% | -28pp | Fell even as the NPL ratio improved - see Beyond the Usual |
| Mandiri Sekuritas' MMI sale to Danantara | Closed | Pending | - | The Rp1,024,317M transfer flagged as pending last quarter has now closed |
| Share price (Sep 30, 2026 close) | Rp4,010 | Rp4,400 | -8.9% | Up 4.2% from June's two-year low of Rp3,850, still down YoY |
Target Valuation Range
Essentially unchanged against its own last quarter on both multiples (~5.84x P/E from ~5.77x, ~1.27x P/B from ~1.26x), and still the cheapest of the three Indonesian banks compared here on both measures. Market cap is approximately Rp374.3 trillion (~$20.94B); the small uptick in multiples reflects the share price (+4.2% quarter-on-quarter) rising slightly faster than trailing earnings and book value grew, not a change in the underlying investment case.
Using trailing-twelve-month net income attributable to owners of approximately Rp64,097,809 million (FY2025's Rp56,293,950 million less 9M 2025's Rp37,730,142 million plus 9M 2026's Rp45,534,001 million), implied TTM EPS of approximately Rp686.76, and the issued share count of 93,333,333,332:
| Market cap → book value | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp4,010 |
| Shares outstanding | 93,333,333,332 |
| Market capitalization | Rp374.3 trillion (~$20.94B) |
| Total equity (book value) | Rp294,041,482M |
| Book value per share | Rp3,150.44 |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B» | 1.26x | 1.27x | up slightly |
| P/E» | 5.77x | 5.84x | up slightly |
P/E: ~5.84x, using TTM EPS of ~Rp686.76 against the Rp4,010 close on September 30, 2026. P/B: ~1.27x, using book value per share of approximately Rp3,150.44 (Rp294,041,482M total equity attributable to owners ÷ 93,333,333,332 shares). Market capitalization: approximately Rp374.3 trillion (~$20.94B).
How Mandiri Compares With the Other Banks We Follow
| Bank | Figures as of | P/B | P/E (basis) | ROE (basis) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Mandiri (Indonesia) | Sep 2026 | ~1.27x | ~5.84x (TTM) | 23.62% (nine months, bank-only, as filed) |
| Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Indonesia) | Jun 2026 | ~1.29x | ~6.76x (TTM) | 18.50% (first half) |
| Bank Central Asia (Indonesia) | Sep 2026 | ~2.6x | ~12.6x (TTM) | 23.9% (nine months, bank-only) |
| ICICI Bank (India) | Sep 2026 | ~2.63x | ~16.0x (annualised quarter) | 16.6% (annualised quarter) |
Each row is that bank's own latest post, so the dates differ except Mandiri, BCA and ICICI, which all share this same September 2026 quarter. The P/E and ROE bases are labelled and differ, so small gaps between rows should not be read as meaningful.
What it shows: Mandiri remains the cheapest of the three Indonesian banks compared here on both multiples (~1.27x P/B and ~5.84x P/E, against BRI's ~1.29x/~6.76x and BCA's ~2.6x/~12.6x), despite earning a comparable or better return on equity than either of them (23.62% against BRI's 18.50% and roughly in line with BCA's 23.9%, on different period bases). The gap to BCA in particular is wide enough on both multiples that it is not fully explained by Mandiri's slightly lower ROE this period - a discount that could reflect the BSI-transition noise flagged throughout 2026's posts, or a genuine difference in how the market prices the two banks' funding franchises (BCA's CASA-led, low-cost deposit base against Mandiri's more wholesale-and-time-deposit-dependent funding mix).
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk's OJK-format published financial statements ("Transparansi dan Publikasi Laporan Bank Umum Konvensional") as of and for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2026 (with comparatives for September 30, 2025 and December 31, 2025), and the bank's "3Q26 Analyst Meeting" investor presentation for the same period.